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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   42404 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025

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European growth these past few years has been remarkably bad? (source is world bank data if anyone has a better data source I'll accept that

From 2009 to 2024 we went from European countries being frequently ahead of the USA gdp wise (ex Netherlands, norway, ireland denmark) to functionally even (Finland, belgium, sweden) to only moderately behind (Germany, france UK), to by 2024 only Ireland being ahead, Norway being basically even, Denmark and the Netherlands moderately behind and everyone else significantly behind.

I never realized how big the eurozone crisis of 2014 was to Europe, it basically wiped a bit less than a decade of growth from the countries. Sure us Growth from 2019 until 2024 has been much greater than that of say germany (31% vs 17%) but in the 2009 - 2018 time frame the 4 countries that were ahead of the US grew 1.5% (netherlands) NOR 3.84% Ireland 54.87% (I know everyone goes Ireland cheats, but Irish GDP per capita isn't really any greater than New york, and it's only slightly higher than the state of california) DEN:4% while US growth was 33.29%

Yes Us growth is still dramatically higher than europe even excluding 2014, but 2014 provides a major thorn in the side. US grew at a 5.64% annualized growth rate from 2019 to 2024 while Germany only had a 3.22% annualized growth rate.

(also why are these growth numbers so high??? is the world bank doing nominal gdp and not RGDP?)

Still with these trajectories California will have a GDP higher than the country of germany by 2030.https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/04/23/california-is-now-the-4th-largest-economy-in-the-world/ (6% growth compounded vs 3% growth)

There's probably something I fundamentally misunderstand (though NVIDIA has a higher market cap than the entire german stock market) so maybe it's more "wtf uS growth is that big compared to northwestern europe why didn't I notice this before"

It's not an illusion due to the stock bubble, Europeans are poorer and only now starting to dimly appreciate how much poorer. But Conrad Bastable had a good blog post on this back in 2020. Unequal Growth: The Zero-Sum Games You Don’t See. Since then, everything became even more grotesque. I strongly recommend reading.

This essay began with one observation: In the first decade of the 2000s, the top 2 nations generated 31% of all the Economic Growth. In the next decade, their share double to 60% of Global Economic Growth. Growth is now a 2-player game.

……… The only escape is to grow faster than the median. Salary, investments, wages, bonuses, stock options, etc. etc. Whatever it takes. If you can grow faster than the average person, you’ll grow your personal Wealth quicker than the costs of these mandatory purchases are being raised.

That’s the only path to individual Wealth.

But the lesson applies at the national level too. Grow faster than the median or cost disease will eat your Wealth.

The first iPhone launched in mid-2007. You think Apple is going to lower prices in foreign markets just because those markets aren’t growing?

Don’t be silly. This chart applies all through your economy, for consumer and industrial goods alike.

Sure, there’s a bottom-tier product that exists to capture the revenue potential of whoever exists at the bottom of the market. But the top-tier product, the new technology, the new release, will continue to be priced under the assumption that those who purchase it are growing.

“Just economize, silly, nobody needs the newest iPhone” — yeah, I agree, I’m still using my 2016 model #pleb. But there’s a huge middle class in Japan and Europe that expects to have a certain purchasing power. A certain economic relevance. They’ve had it for 60+ years in most cases.

One imagines that feeling it slip away is a painful experience.

………

Conclusion

If United States GDP shrinks by $264B, while German GDP shrinks by $332B, as happened in 2009, both nations are hurting.

And Germany clearly hurts more — $68B more on an absolute basis, and by a greater percentage of its 2008 GDP. That difference widens the gap between the two nations.

But if the United States GDP grows by $2.5 Trillion while German GDP grows by $0.5 Trillion, as happened from 2016-2018, the gap between the productive capacity of the two nations widens by ~$2 Trillion.

Relative to the United States, Germany perhaps performed better in 2009 than 2016-2018.

Rationalists will be quick to point out that this is an unreasonable lens, as rational human actors should rather increase their personal income by $[X] even if their neighbour’s income increases by $[2X], than see their own income decrease by $[Y]. Assuming prices are static, I agree wholeheartedly.

But the lesson of Considerations on Cost Disease, The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth, and The Uncharity of College is that prices for the most important purchases will rise to consume most of the increased Wealth a society generates.

Globalization means the societal reference frame for many prices now becomes [the Most Productive society on Earth].

US GDP growth isn’t going to skyrocket your local rents in Germany (although Chinese GDP growth does appear to impact rents in Vancouver), but some of your favourite consumer goods will be priced according to US growth expectations.

You can grow or not grow, but that new iPhone will cost more regardless.

There is some silliness here. The existence of a zero sum game at the top of a field doesn't mean everyone has to be involved.

Only one person can have the absolute best house. It's a zero sum game. And there can be an arms race / wealth race to own that house. But there is no limit on how many people can have an excellent house.

Zero sum competition seems to be the game in top end places like New York or San Francisco. But you can travel to any other metropolitan area, find a software or finance job at one of the many companies based in that city and be at the top end of middle class wealth in that city.

Competition for Ivy League schools can drive kids crazy, but a good state school is not hard to access.

I live in a good house, in a good neighborhood, in a good area, with good schools, and our family income is through good well paying jobs. None of these things in my life are the best. There are better houses / neighborhoods / schools / jobs / etc. But I'm happy at the current trade-off point.

I am continually confused by people that seem willing to burn all of their wealth and happiness to compete for the best in something. I often find that quality growth in a product or service is linear. And price growth is linear, except for the top end of the market where things go exponential.

It's not about comfort, or affording things that are "good". It's closer to "status", which is inherently comparative. A lot of people have difficulty coping with a neighbor (or even a friend!) who appears to be doing materially better than themselves. It's yet one more reason social media is hell - "keeping up with the Joneses", but on a nigh-global scale. Bad for your mind, bad for your heart, but not easy to purge from your mindset. If you've done it, congrats, and I mean that without a hint of sarcasm. I still have work to do on myself and my own mindset.

I wouldn't say I purged it so much as never had it in the first place. Or at least haven't had it much as an adult. I have some vague recollections of jealousy from elementary school. Pretty sure puberty switched my priorities.

I thought most adults were similar. I guess that was typical mind fallacy.

There are a bunch of philosophies/religions that try to curb that jealousy. Marxism being a major exception that encourages everyone to embrace that jealousy, and tells them that it is fully correct.

There are large financial returns on embracing a search for the good, rather than simply trying to do better than a neighbor or friend. There are also social gains to be made in cutting off status competitions with friends.

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