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I seem to recall that in at least one of the alleged Discord group[s?], someone thought the photo looked like him and they joked about it. That implies that at least that group more broadly wasn't aware. I presume it's possible a Discord friend helped him on a more individual basis, but nothing other than maybe the questioner really required any help. In fact, he literally used a drop spot for the rifle, so I'd assume an actual accomplice would have been ready to grab it - actually would have been smart, or even worked, since no cameras covered the area and the other person would have looked different, though transportation would still be risky. Kirk's last questioner was interviewed and seemed innocent to me, despite affiliation with a group that usually hounds Kirk with gotchas allegedly he wasn't doing so on that particular day, though I supposed given the context and timing it's possible (OTOH, it's a right-wing AMA, of course guns are going to come up and probably trans issues too at some point no matter who has the mic).
The texts suggest that he really thought there was a good chance he'd get away with it. He was maybe loosely correct, but criminals of all types often forget that they have more human connections, even when loners, than you might think. Plus witnesses are everywhere in a manhunt, and he seems to literally not have planned for cameras (I mean come on dude, there are ALWAYS cameras somewhere, and an accomplice probably would have said as much). The grandpa recognized the rifle, and at least three people that we know of instantly thought it looked like him based on the pictures only.
The lone caveat then is I don't think we were told exactly how he got back home to Washington county - one report I believe mentioned a vehicle, but it wasn't clear if they actually matched its location to anywhere relevant that day, or found out where he parked, etc. I suppose someone could have driven him?
The dolt had his damned phone in his pocket, these days the devices are semi-online and ping the towers even when you think they are turned off. This level of incompetence blows out of the water any theories of isreal involvement(as alleged on our favorite internet watering holes) or grander strategy plan in my view.
If you turn them "off", they do shut down the radio and don't ping anything. Unless they've been infected by certain sorts of malware. (And if you happen a target of an investigation, there is special firmware that shuts down everything but the radio that can be loaded onto your phone by a co-operative carrier, which is to say any carrier whose CEO doesn't want to go to pound-me-in-the-ass Federal Prison)
So if you're a nobody with a clean phone, you're PROBABLY ok if you turn it "off". But it'd be dumb to bet on it.
Yeah, you can never know how "off" these devices are unless you have one of those older samsungs that you could physically take the back off and take out the battery. Those are rarer now tho.
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newer iPhones have their bluetooth running when they are 'off' (i think this runs for up to 1 day?) in order to network with nearby iPhones to support the find-my-phone feature. https://www.wired.com/story/apple-find-my-cryptography-bluetooth/
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I'm sure he would have been identified eventually, but on the other hand he had sufficient leeway if he didn't confess/brag to probably get out of the country without anybody raising him. Even the photos were like enough that somebody who knew him would have a reasonable suspicion but they weren't exactly smoking guns.
Get out where?
If you look at succesful escapees from highest profile manhunt, the secret is to have friends/family in third world country who will hide you (while the authorities are not looking very hard).
If you are Diego Robles, your chances are good. If your name is James Robinson, forget it.
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