This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
The general problem here is that parenting attitude is a massive confounder. It is not like the study authors had randomly flipped coins to decide which kids would get vaccines and which ones would get saline solution instead.
There is a certain type of helicopter parent who will drag their kids to the doctor whenever it is coughing. Their kids will generally get all the recommended vaccines, but also get any diagnosis under the sun that might be vaguely applicable. If little Timmy is late (e.g. 90ths percentile) learning to speak, he will get diagnosed with a Speech Disorder, Development Disorder and ADHD. For autoimmune diseases, I think that it is much more likely that the unvaccinated kids are allowed to play in the dirt where they get exposed to pathogens. Generally, anti-vaxxers are probably more rural, e.g. somewhat closer to the ancestral environment, which might have all kinds of neurological benefits for brain development.
These two effects (diagnostic bias, systematic lifestyle differences) seem enough to explain the observed factor 6 in relative risk.
From a mathematics perspective, the table on page 17 looks a bit shoddy. If they have 8 cases of "Brain Dysfunction" in group A and none in group B, that seems to be the kind of thing you could calculate a p-value for (e.g. "What is the probability that given there is no effect, the result will be more skewed by random chance"). They do not. But then again, this may be a general shoddiness of medical research.
I would not dignify anything he says with the word "theory". "Narrative" might be the better word.
At the risk of going all Bulverist on the authors, I think that his health department creates a huge demand for studies which show how dangerous vaccines are. Any professional who is willing to go on a p-fishing trip in publicly available data to bolster his narrative can possibly hope to be hired in his department.
Up until COVID, the two strongest predictors of having an unvaccinated child were high income and living in California, Washington, or Oregon.
Depending on the dates of the studies, this might actually confound things in the other direction.
Every single antivaxxer I can think of here in Finland is either part of some specific religious subgroups, a new age hippie or a "bro you need to watch this youtuber to get The Real Truth"-pseudo conspiracy theorist. The religious groups are mostly concentrated in specific parts of the country (which presents a real local problem with herd immunity for some dangerous diseases). Hippies are obviously much more urban.
More options
Context Copy link
This is true in my experience. I know anti-vaxxers pre-covid. They were largely new-age types, very liberal before woke was a thing, and hypochondriacs/against letting their children play outside much. I will say they were anti-doctor visits/checkups though. But like the OP said maybe not if there was something really serious like asthma.
The new post-covid antivaxxers are conservative folk that probably do let their kids play outside/in the dirt more than the average "pro"-vaxxer, but I don't think these are in any studies yet.
IIRC alternative medicine is almost never a first second and final solution; alties basically always go to the doctor if their ailment is serious and doesn't improve.
Makes sense
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
But isn’t the opposite true? That is, for years there was a huge demand for vaccine friendly studies. Are you sure you aren’t falling to an isolated demand for rigor?
In my world model, there is a wagon fort mentality in the respectable medical community. They know that the crazies will eventually get their hands on every paper they write and thus try to proactively avoid anything which can be used as an argument-as-soldier by the anti-vaxxers.
This is of course bad for truth-seeking. It will also erode what little trust there is between the anti-vaxxers and the medical establishment. It is a bit of a catch-22: research and publish without bias and your papers will be quoted prominently by a crazy influencer with millions of views, or have some bias and get accused of hiding The Truth from an unsuspecting public.
Personally, I trust the medical establishment to eventually find the correct answer, even if hampered by these considerations. But yes, I would price in that papers which show genuine problems with specific vaccines are probably less published than they would be in Dath Ilan.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link