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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 23, 2023

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I am not sure about the evidence of a black/white split but people generally underestimate how much crime is committed by career criminals.

Crimes of passion are rare compared to a murder committed by someone with a long criminal record. Here's a liberal-leaning site which says just that.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2012/mar/19/edward-flynn/85-percent-shooting-suspects-and-victims-milwaukee/

For all homicides in 2011 -- those involving guns and those that didn’t -- 57 percent of the 72 suspects and 62 percent of the 66 homicide victims had at least six prior arrests.

How much crime does one have to commit to be arrested six separate times? Dozens or hundreds of incidents, I would imagine. By removing a small number of people from the streets we can have a drastic reduction in crime. Unfortunately, as this goes against the prevailing political dogma, we are unlikely to see studies that back up this claim. Anyone who put it forward would become persona non-grata in the academic community.

My prediction is that as strict sentencing laws are rolled back we will see higher violent crime rates over the next 10 years. I believe that mass incarceration can explain most of the reduction in violent crime from 1990–2015 and most of its subsequent rise.

My prediction is that as strict sentencing laws are rolled back we will see higher violent crime rates over the next 10 years. I believe that mass incarceration can explain most of the reduction in violent crime from 1990–2015 and most of its subsequent rise.

Mass incarceration, war on drugs, abortion, better surveillance and detective technology, etc. Some will argue that European countries have less crime despite more lenient conditions, but this may fail to take into account demographics and unreported or unsolved crime.

What’s the murder rate like among, say, the Afro-French, or Turks in Germany?

Ah, they're trying to obscure data. Which tells me it probably points to discrepancies between Germans and at least a few other large groups(that is, not just gypsies that everyone already knows are all criminals, or a few small ethnicities that are common in the mob).

As much as Americans kvetch about their black people, there really is no population over there that's really comparable to Gypsies.

It's an unfair over-generalisation to assume, without any other evidence (habitus, dress, accent, etc) that some individual black American person has a meaningfully higher chance of committing crime. But with Gypsies, man, it's an iron law, there's not even a question. A gypsy president, or for that matter gypsy lawyer or doctor or other middle-class type, is inconceivable.

I know an Irish traveller (not mixed) who has quit the culture and done very well for himself becoming a programmer, but yeah the generalisation is still a very accurate one.

Roma gypsies seem completely set in their ways while Irish traveller ways have changed quite a bit over the decades, the culture may have become even more criminal as a result (though maybe reading John B. Keane plays has given me a mistaken impression of how it was in the 50s), but change opens up the space for a few ambitious people to make it out.

Ah, the import of rap culture?

Nah they're not into rap music, mostly country. Though I am shocked at how much the local Nigerians are affected by UK drill culture, kids I went to school who seemed pretty normal suddenly picking up a London accent and trying to be gangsters before ending up in jail.