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Notes -
Senate ends shutdown.
With no provision to extend COVID-era ACA subsidies, merely a vote, it has the appearance and character of a Democrat loss. The usual suspects on Reddit are crying foul of cowardice.
But could it have ended any other way? The Democrats are obliged to government unions, who weren't being paid: and to the urban poor, who weren't getting SNAP. Two massive interests within their base were being sacrificed for the benefit of... four million recipients? The math never added up.
You could say that the Republicans were heartless, but they have come out of it looking like fighters and winners, while the Democrats have capitulated to 'fascists'. The midterms will still probably be a Dem victory, but this act by Schumer and the moderates will not be something the #resistance will be likely to forget anytime soon.
So, the critical part here is that the GOP promised a vote on a healthcare bill of the Democrats’ choosing. That’s actually a big, big deal. Usually, the minority party is victim to “gotcha votes”, where bills are written so voting no looks bad and generates material for campaign mailers. This lets the Dems pull a rare Uno Reverse and get one of their own. It means that the Democrats are banking heavily on a blue wave midterm, where the shutdown will be old news and not as impactful, but putting the GOP in a vise could pay lasting dividends - they can point to a more recent, perfectly set up vote where the GOP allows healthcare premiums to spike massively with a no vote, not just inaction. (Yes, this vote is only promised in the Senate, but that’s the biggest juice the Dems want, and the House margins are thin enough that it could theoretically still pass there)
Don't read too much into big potential-candidate name panning the deal. They have to do that. It’s free for them. It allows face saving. And if a shutdown created even more holiday travel chaos, all incumbents would have suffered.
Also health care costs going up is still ultimately going to be attributed to the party in charge. We are already seeing this in action - Trump is out there claiming that costs are down for average Americans, and people aren’t buying it. He’s sounding more and more like a traditional politician and that will hurt him.
Also, the Dems got promises for back pay and rehiring of fired workers. That wasn’t at all a given! Even more, certain specific agencies will shut down again potentially in January - well, most honestly. All but the FDA, Ag, VA, part military, that’s not many. So most will shut down again and that will happen closer to midterm primaries.
This is definitely a tactical win for Democrats.
Key word a vote. No one is obligated to vote yes, they just have to hold a vote.
I think GP is concerned that if the Democrats get to exclusively control timing and content of the bill. Having to vote down the free healthcare sunshine and rainbows that CBO says will pay off the debt right before midterms sucks too.
There are two possibilities for the bill- one which does literally nothing but make abortions free, and one which is a series of 90/10 bipartisan bad ideas that passes with flying colors, gets labeled 'Trumpcare', and nobody blames when the price controls cause insulin shortages.
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