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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   5861 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025

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Personally, I think these guys ARE state actors, but Venezuela has obvious incentives to never ever claim them, so they're acting under the flag of no nation, and thus its hard to see why we shouldn't call their bluff and just treat them like pirates until Venezuela actually complains.

We're also at the point where the U.S. response to sending these boats has been made clear. I'm sure there are also backchannels where its communicated "if the boats keep coming, we're going to keep blowing them up."

They keep putting the boats in the water. What precisely are they EXPECTING. "Don't worry brother, they will surely detain you for a fair trial if you're caught in the act. Pay no attention to the reaper drone circling overhead."

Personally, I think these guys ARE state actors

It would explain the extra personnel on the boats. Illegal smuggling as a patronage jobs program.

My priors on a struggling petrostate trying to make up lost funding by becoming a narcostate are pretty high.

The only other viable explanation would be that Maduro has lost significant control over his territory to gangs, but for obvious reasons wouldn't want to admit that, so this is in fact just cartels acting with impunity and they consider the occasional drug mule being obliterated as the cost of doing business.

Its just possible that the boats getting ganked are intentional diversions from, I dunno, actual submarines or some more surreptitious shipping methods.

There was a rather more pointed example of this, IIRC, where deniable Russian troops in Syria got in a dustup with the US military. The story I heard is that US forces contacted the Russians demanding that their forces cease fire and withdraw, were told that no Russian forces were involved, tee hee, and responded by annihilating the Russian troops with a sustained, overwhelming bombardment.

deniable Russian troops in Syria got in a dustup with the US military

The Battle of Khasham, for those interested in reading more.

That's as clear an example of Defect/Defect as you can ask for. Sucks for the Russians... but doesn't it always?

>mfw I'm a member of a deniable military squad working for a sovereign nation, and I am denied by my nation when the opposing force has arty.

Or if you like:

"Andrei, you've lost ANOTHER Mercenary Battallion?"

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