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Notes -
The Elevation of Fringe Theories to Official US Foreign Policy
Rewind 10 years, and the only ones expressing dire concern over racial demographics in the US and Europe were very fringe, low-status, rag-tag group of political radicals called the "Alt Right". At the time it seemed scandalous that anyone would have much concern over European civilization becoming majority non-White, at best it was just crazy-talk but more commonly it was denounced as an indictment on someone's character for advocating for any sort of political or cultural initiative to stop or reverse this development. Although that is still the median interpretation, since the 2020 Great Awokening there's been a rapid expansion and a mainstreaming of these political views- the greatest indication of that yet is the release of the official 2025 National Security Strategy that directly identifies these concerns, as well as actually stopping and reversing them, a matter of US foreign policy. My emphasis:
The long-standing political strategy of "Democratic" Europe has been to form whatever coalition of center-left/right parties is necessary to prevent far right parties who oppose this from attaining power, while at the same time engaging in strong censorship and political suppression of right-wing parties- an artifact of the psychological warfare against Europe which we called Denazification. This is behavior is identified as a national security threat in this document, which advocates the United States "Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations."
The devil is in the details of implementation, but this document represents the codification of fringe Alt-Right views from 10 years ago. It's no longer a "conspiracy theory" or "White Supremacy" to identify the political forces actively orchestrating the demographic replacement of European nations, it's directly identified as a foreign policy issue of the United States, which is a major step forward, with mainstream publications now openly acknowledging the issue without the usual trappings of denouncing racism or White Supremacy:
Some observers have noted the relative deemphasis on preparing for conflict with China and pivoting towards Western-hemispheric control, a revitalizing of the Monroe Doctrine. Although I am a critic of Trump, I have to say I am supportive of this national security strategy- although implementation is ultimately what matters and in all likelihood a Democrat administration would strike much of this. But it's a major step forward in acknowledging an existential crisis that until very recently was completely taboo.
It will backfire. Trump's national strategy and persona are incompatible with Europe.
First, Trump hurt their pride.
Europeans are proud. Trump has taken a sneer-and-condescend approach towards European politics. It's a bad strategy towards any institution. But, it's catastrophic towards Europe. I visit Europe every couple of months. Yes, urban educated circles aren't a representative sample. But, the Europeans appear to despise Trump and his politics. Even blue city democrats don't hate Trump as much. Eventually, the hostility becomes grating.
Second, Trump put financial pressure.
Europe has slid into a financially fragile state after a lackluster 2008 recovery and not being able to print their way out of the covid crisis. You'd think Trump would extend an olive branch after the harsh words. Nope, it's more jab, jab, hook. Trump has added tariffs and strong armed Europe to rearm. Why would the Europeans be happy about any of this ?
Third, Europe has problems that America doesn't.
Spain and Italy have lower fertility rates than Japan. France and Germany have crushing social welfare ponzi schemes that require an ever increasing number of young people. They need immigrants. Trump wants these nations to use his 'wrecking ball' approach to political and (in his imagination) civilizational revival. No. They can't do it, because they aren't America.
2025's America doesn't have the financial weight or the military willpower to bully Europe. The other option is to align incentives. Confusingly, Trump is erecting new barriers instead. Europe may engage for now. It has no other options. But it sure as hell will be looking for alternatives if it does actually start regaining 'civilizational self confidence'.
Trump is single handedly ushering in a multi-polar world.
The policy is not aimed at convincing the existing European power apparatus but on fostering opposition parties. If migration were so great for Europe, why is all the censorship and political suppression of the opposition even necessary? Why is opposition growing in Europe if it has all these great benefits? Europe being replaced by foreigners is not in Europe's interests or the security interests of the United States. I do not care if the average European is in denial of the fact, it has to be overcome. The EU Regulatory framework is by far the greater barrier to economic growth than not having enough Arabs and Africans, who have not ushered in economic prosperity.
Also, you are not European, you are Indian, so the "you need us" perspective should be inverted- you are the one who needs us, not the other way around.
Europe had its opposition boom.
Meloni has been in power for a while now. What's changed ? Orban tried to get fertility up, and numbers have continued cratering. Boris Johnson got Brexit, and things have gotten much worse since.
Idk what it has to do with Indians needing anyone. As a nation, Indian is reasonably comfortable being alone in the geopolitics landscape. As people, one perk of coming from the 3rd world, is they can take a lot of pain before life truly feels like it sucks. Perk of living in a shithole, is it can't get much worse than that.
Neither Germany nor France nor the United Kingdom got their populist peak yet. And it is coming. By God it is coming.
With all due respect to my Hungarian friends, they are a borderland with conflicting loyalties, not the financial heart of Europe.
And Meloni did manage to turn around Italy's economy in a big way. Big enough that it's impressing neighbors. She'd had to essentially give up foreign policy for it, but that's not nothing. And Italy is not like France or Britain. You can't truly govern alone there.
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Not exactly. They identified interventions with positive effect for the third birth most pronounced in 20-29-year-old highly educated mothers.
https://hungary.representation.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-12/hetfa_fertilitymodels_20190913.pdf
That sounds like interesting subgroup analysis.
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