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I don’t think so. One of the features of days of rage style terror (also the basque, ira, raf etc) campaigns in the 1970s, and with anarchist / leftist violence in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was that people actually regularly got away with attacks in a way that they don’t today. Surveillance is much higher, all these discords are being AI monitored, cars can be easily tracked, mountains of cell phone and transaction data can be filtered with analysis performed with minimal human involvement. In 1977, before ubiquitous CCTV, before ANPR, before everyone carrying around a tracking device, before DNA analysis that means that if they find anything you possibly touched they can pull your second cousin on 23-and-me and find you etc, it was much harder to find terrorists without a confession, a mole, or a fuck-up.
The islamists get around this because they’re one and done, radicalized online, mostly lone or duo/trio attacks, and because most importantly they want to and expect to die and go to Jannah. An islamist who stabs people outside a synagogue doesn’t expect to go on doing this until victory; he will view the defeat of the yahud and crusaders only from heaven. Leftists want to build their utopia on earth and actually want to live in it.
How are the "mostly peaceful" protestors doing these days? Perhaps more important: What's the perception of how they are doing these days?
A few early arrests might get people to change their tune, but that would require:
It might fizzle out, but I'm not as optimistic that it's simply dead in the water right now.
I’d say there’s a categorical difference between protests, even ones that turn into riots, and bombings.
There have definitely been prison sentences in the Minneapolis and Seattle arsons. Same for protest-adjacent murders. Even statue vandals have gotten convicted. Were there particular cases you had in mind?
I can definitely see that lone-wolf vs. crowd-based violence is different, but they blend together enough to be judged in the same breath.
One particular person chose to throw a Molotov cocktail. The fact that he was within a supportive crowd at the time may have helped him make that choice, but I don't think it caused the desire to appear from nothing. Similarly, the "crowd" couldn't offer concrete support from home, but they could still offer moral support and encouragement.
No, explicitly not. This is a 100% psychological/sociological question because that's what drives people to act. If the vibes say you can get away with murder, then people will act like they can get away with murder, and (occasionally) commit murder. The ground truth of conviction rates only matters as far as it changes the perception (and prevents second offenses, I guess). Preemptive arrests are similar.
How much do you think those vibes influence an honest-to-God terrorist?
They have about as much connection to the actual risk:benefit calculation as tea leaves do.
Quite a bit. If someone who's disaffected by The SystemTM comes to believe that murder is a good path forward, then they might just do it.
Celebrating political violence and not punishing it is the easiest way to make it more attractive.
Broadly correct. What do you think the connection between the actual risk:benefit calculation and the decision to go terrorist is?
Pretty strong, at least for political terror. Think about the selection effects in making it to the "planting a bomb" stage. The absolute dumbest or most impulsive are likely to get filtered out, one way or another.
I'm not saying they're making a reasonable calculation. Sometimes there's a big thumb on the scale saying "you'll totally go to heaven for this" or "there's no risk since you're smarter than all those people who got caught." But they are demonstrating a basic ability to think about actions and consequences.
The current vibes aren't nearly enough to tip that scale. I get that you feel like BLM protestors and Gaza enthusiasts are getting away with murder. I don't think your confidence is shared by the mainstream left, let alone any radicals. They're terrified that Trump is going to black-bag them in the middle of the night!
Do people believe that, or do they just say that?.
Heck if I know. It’s vibes, and it’s about as well-founded as OP’s belief in BLM immunity.
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