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This just gave me a thought: All of the UBI advocates and discourse around post scarcity and the obsolescence of human labor are totally wrong. After demographic collapse we will need every single able bodied person working extra hard, even with the assistance of AI, automation, and all other productivity enhancing technology, just to have a chance at supporting all of the old people. Even if 90% of all jobs are fully automated away, that will be barely enough to keep society functioning
hahahahaha of course it doesn't matter what the people think, the government will continue to import infinite foreigners.
Monetary incentives don't work, so we just need to make them even bigger.
Well it's not strictly wrong but nobody has ever found out how much money you have to offer to make it happen.
My guess is there isn't enough money in the world, unless you want to subsidize the fertility of the worst of the worst. That is, you can't transfer enough money to increase the fertility of the working class and above without reducing it among those you're taking it from more than enough to make up for it.
Better would be to reduce the cost (especially the non-delegable cost) of having children, but no one knows of a feasible way to do that. We keep doing the opposite with the expected results, and I expect there's a positive feedback loop -- as children become rarer, we insist on more parental investment per child, which discourages children even more. I call this a "K-selection spiral" (or "death spiral") -- please make this the title in any Index of Crackpot Theories.
I like your term 'k-selection spiral'. But I want to point out you're looking at it wrong in terms of resources. It's not 'amount' of resources, it's 'how they're distributed'. People in the literal poorest countries in the world have lots and lots of children, and they live in like Niger and Chad. You see fertility bumps around oil towns and military bases, too, because young women's best economic prospect is to marry a man employed by the thing that makes their town notable.
Are you sure those "fertility bumps" in oil towns and military bases don't go away when age-adjusted?
Yeah, people in poor countries have lots of children. They don't have to put them in the best daycares or supervise them 24/7 until they're in school, or any of the other things Westerners do.
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You can do it cheap. Let's say 50000 $ per human being. You buy sperm, eggs and surrogate mothership you can make it in the third world for this sum. Create a system of professional mother and fathers - fool time job. Yeah it will be somewhat weird families - with 10 or 12 kids, but not that weird.
See the recent controversy over Chinese billionaires who allegedly are buying literally hundreds of surrogate children in the US.
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The idea is to increase fertility generally, not to create some weird cult. I am skeptical that your approach would work on the small scale (trying to do ANYTHING in the Third World is difficult), and do not believe it could be scaled up at all.
Doing anything in the third world is fairly easy. It just requires some bribes. Buying eggs and sperm from the origin country is easy for said origin country, shipping the embryos to bumfuck Africa to be carried to term - ditto. Then the state has a huge network of kindergardens and school to raise them. Almost any first world country has a system for orphans - scaling it will be hard but not impossible. Not talking about a cult - talking about the state producing the birth rates it needs directly without the participation of the citizenship.
Do you think this is desirable?
No. But non gulf style immigration is even less desirable.
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