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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2500 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 21, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

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Yea dude, copper has been way outperforming the SP500 for the past few years. I'm long on copper futures and my portfolio has been doing excellent.

HGW00 is up 57% over 5 years and the S&P is up 87% in the same timeframe - but at least your money is where your mouth is.

Copper is up 20% this year and S&P is only up ~17%. I only got into the copper futures around Feb.

You should have gotten into silver or even gold.

Those are different trades, though. (Warning: speculation on the price fluctuation of assets) The gold rally is due to a combination of "debasement trade" (the idea that current debt levels are unsustainable and the only way out is via printer) and a bet on multipolarity (USD status as reserve currency being threatened, due to a variety of reasons), silver is a speculative derivative of the same trade, as far as I know there is a lot of silver to mine everywhere still.

What @thejdizzler is talking about is a structural undersupply of copper, long term. I'm not actually sure if copper futures are the best expression of that trade, I assume you've bought the longest dated ones available?

Those are different trades, though.

Yeah. And? An investor should always seek to compound their money as quickly as possible, rather than sit with weaker performing assets for long periods of time.

Because it's a silly point to make in the context of whether they are acting on their stated beliefs, and whether that paid off vs a reasonable benchmark.

Absent that, it's pointless to discuss which or what asset performed better, should've bought Banco Santander stock.

Absent that, it's pointless to discuss which or what asset performed better, should've bought Banco Santander stock.

It's not pointless. Asset performances aren't drawn from the wizard's hat.

I've just bought an index fund that's supposed to track copper futures. CPER is the ticker name. I believe it is a basket of futures up to a year out.

"Total Expense Ratio 1.06%"

Ouch. vicente_del_bosque.gif

Not too late to sell and buy a low-cost broadly diversified ETF or MF.

I hate commissions as much as anyone, but that doesn't seem outrageous for this kind of strategy, it's probably far cheaper than trading it on your own, considering the outrageous commissions for futures contracts.

ouch yea I didn't do enough research! This is a problem for 2026!

I believe

Fund literature

The investment objective of CPER is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ per share NAV to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return (the “SCI”), less CPER’s expenses.

The overall return on the SCI is generated by two components: (i) uncollateralized returns from the Benchmark Component Copper Futures Contracts comprising the SCI, and (ii) a daily fixed income return reflecting the interest earned on hypothetical 3-month Treasuries, calculated using the weekly auction rate for 3-Month Treasuries published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. SHIM is the owner of the SCI.

Commodity nameCopper
Commodity symbolHG
Allowed contractsAll 12 calendar months
Max. tenor12

I’ve struggled to find a good commodity fund for gold that isn’t really expensive per unit or isn’t just a gold mining ETF. I’ll look into this in the New Year more.

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