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To me it seems like the situation is still pretty bad, possibly getting worse. The most concerning recent event to me was the July 4th attack on a border patrol station a few months ago, which involved five to ten people. That indicates to me that actual organized paramilitaries are forming below the surface.
Then you have comments by the Virginia District Attorney and the general internet commentatariat in the wake of the Mangione assassination and the assassination of Charlie Kirk which indicate the body politic is becoming increasingly comfortable endorsing political violence. That’s not just a spiritual and moral issue. You need that kind of hardness and willingness to accept violence among the gen pop to sustain any kind of campaign of armed struggle like the IRA’s in Northern Ireland. People have to be willing to provide passive aid and look the other way.
The right wing is angry too. Although Rob Reiner’s murder was apparently not a political killing, I heard comments in right wing spaces that mirrored the level of bitterness you saw in the left over Kirk.
Oddly I don’t see the same level of paramilitary organization forming in the right which you wouldn’t think given their greater affinity for gun culture. I don’t anticipate any major attacks coming out of the right in the near future. The anger is there but no one seems interested in doing anything about it. Maybe because the current Federal government is perceived as friendly. I don’t know.
The right affiliated zoomers are concerning to me. I think a huge percentage are in the process of seriously embracing actual unreconstructed naziism as an ideology. They are keeping it on the down low for now, probably not for too much longer.
I think there are two main escalation triggers to watch out for. The first is the dying off of the baby boomers, which will have a similar effect to pulling out all the control rods from a nuclear reactor at once. Boomers are less radical and they are an underrated part of damping both sides more violent impulses. I think the Boomer die off induced radicalization will be more potent on the right, which by and large places more importance on what their parents and elders think of them.
The second is the economy. It’s not great for regular people already. If there’s a big crash and mass unemployment in the near future you’ll see some serious shit.
The reason for this is that any attempt to do as such is often met with the reply of 'Nice try, Fedboy.'
The Right as a whole is excruciatingly aware of the double-standard of how paramilitary organizations are treated. Antifa? John Brown Society? A-O-Kay, says the Feds. Patriot Front? A right-wing organization of people dressed in anonymous uniforms?
Clearly a fed-run honeypot.
I can't really blame them, going by the long history of treatment by right-wing elements by said fed. Even just recently, with the governor kidnapping attempt, who's conviction of those indicted was actually overturned because the majority of said group was federal operatives egging the entire plot on. And that overturned conviction was reversed by a higher-judge.
Because of course it was.
So. Any right-wing paramilitary organization is going to be quiet, run deep, run silent, and will probably never get talked about unless things get really, really bad.
I also imagine cell based approaches will be more popular among righties. Even though it's less capable of coordinated action, it's far more resistant to fed infiltration.
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This is honestly the best part, my "actually the jedi are evil" conceit. The Zoomers are going to have absolutely nothing even close of the exposure to the "holocaust" memeplex. Instead they are only on the receiving end of the bitterness and hatred of an already disintegrating edifice of the neolib/neocon machine.
I can only dream of a world where the US has successfully removed it's futurama esque green brain slug. And the zoomers seem to be a good stepping stone towards that.
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Maybe they're less radical, but they certainly were more violent back when they were young compared to the youth of today.
It’s not just about capacity for violence, it’s about the level of desire for a radically new social order. Old people don’t want that, they want things to remain comfortable just long enough for them to die. Even the ones that intensely dislike the way things are now are still like this.
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