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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
I'm listening to Trump's press briefing right now. He seems... pretty blatant that this is about oil. Saying something like "Over the years, their oil business has been a failure. They're pumping far less than they could have. But it will now be under control of America's oil companies, the greatest oil companies in the world, and they'll get it pumping like never before." That's not an exact quote of course, but it's not far off.
So uh... congrats to the oil company shareholders, I guess.
Press conference link
Oil is mentioned a lot, but if I had to piece together a take it doesn't appear likely the US is currently "running" Venezuela and is not planning to run Venezuela. Not much mentioned is about politics at all, and if you're interested in building out industry you'd be interested in politics. "Democracy" didn't get a mention which might be a record for POTUS press conferences on foreign policy.
Trump directly answered one reporter who asked if he was working with opposition leader Machado. He called Machado a nice lady, but said he had not spoken to her and that she doesn't have the respect of the country to run it. That could be a calculated distance for coming political battles, but we don't do 4D chess, do we? Apparently he has spoken with now President Rodriguez.
Right now it looks the extent of running the country is getting the former and also current ruling party to say they'll be nicer. I wouldn't be surprised if in a couple years whatever US Oil project -- if there is actual follow through -- falls by the wayside. Based on what was said here I expect Venezuela to continue to be Chavistas-without-Maduro who maybe are more friendly to the US and probably still have a dilapidated oil industry. Opposition in Venezuela may take advantage of or otherwise earn more US interest and public support in coming weeks. Good luck to them.
Trump:
I expect "run the country" will mean we let the interim government run it under US military supervision. Although apparently the VP is now demanding Maduro's return, so maybe she'll get the "#2 man in Al Queda" treatment and someone else will run the interim government.
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Yeah, I watched the conference. Arrest head of state, speak with his immediate successor, and stage a press conference to talk about the possibility of revitalizing its oil industry. This may be the extent of Trump running Venezuela. We'll see.
"we're going to run the country" implies plans of running it in the future. They may not materialize (this is trump we're talking about) but saying there's no plan to run the country is obviously wrong.
"Plans" is too generous. More like concepts of a plan.
I'd give it as much confidence as the Trump healthcare plan.
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