This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
Total aura shift for Trump. He was a lame duck, dead in the water. The Fuentes doomers were winning. Trump had failed. He hadn't met his campaign promises, and his approval rating was in the gutter. But then, in an decisive display of competence and leadership, he ousted a dictator and took over a country that had been a thorn in the US's side for decades. And he did it at almost no cost.
His speech was fascinating and a dramatic shift from anything we have heard in the past 80 years. No "muh democracy." He talked about Venezuela's crumbling infrastructure and the inability of their government (deliberate or not) to stop the drugs. Their mortal sin was not dictatorship, it was incompetence and the negative impact their incompetence was having on the United States. He openly acknowledges that the oil will benefit the US, and says this is a good thing. And it resonates.
Trump wanted a big legacy-defining move, like buying Greenland, and this time he got it. Under his leadership, the United States took over Venezuela in a matter or hours at minimal cost. The outcome is truly astonishing. And he might not be done. He alluded that "something needs to be done" about the Mexican cartels. Destroying them would be a true legacy-maker. We'll see how it all works out in the long-term, and whether it becomes of a legacy of greatness or failure.
I predict we'll see a boost in Trump's approval ratings. The average person knows nothing about Venezuela except that it was bad and a problem. And now they see that Trump appears to have fixed it overnight.
A great sage predicted this moment 13 years ago…
Obama lost those interventions. Europe got a migrant crisis as a result. Today doesn’t matter. It’s what’s created next that matters.
Also I think it’s fair to say Trump has been putting this in play for months. Rubio for a decade.
In the start-up world they laugh about NDAs because the idea doesn’t matter. It’s the execution. Day 0 was executed successfully.
Obama and Bush were at least wise enough to create migrant tsunamis and narco states on the opposite side of the planet, not close to home. Obama learned from Bush and didn't say he was going to rebuild Libya and turn it into a nation building project that is likely to fail.
The migrant crisis already happened in Venezuela. That’s in the past and occurred under Biden.
Much longer than that, but substantially correct.
One of the weaknesses of the 'but this could destabilize the region like Iraq or Syria' is that Venezuela's collapse under Chavez/Maduro already has been at the level of the Iraq or Syria civil wars. Venezuela has a bit less than 40 million people now, but 2 million left during the Chavez years, and another nearly 8 million under Maduro. This compares to the 6 million Syrian refugees during the Syrian civil war. Caracas 'at peace' notably had a murder and kidnapping rate rivaling, and eventually surpassing, Baghdad. Rolling blackouts, gang paramilitaries, endemic corruption, refugee displacement, and all that.
It's also why the 'but the Americans will just steal the oil!' narrative has, so far, largely fallen flat on the Venezuelans, and gets more or less Yes-Chad response. Venezuelan oil was already being stolen for the interest of other countries- particularly Cuba- and the money was already being stolen by a corrupt elite. The (never particularly accurate) 'Americans stealing the oil' doesn't actually make things worse, because things are already that bad... or worse.
A lot of the online / social media response of 'Trump bad' is running into the Venezuelan/local regional perspectives of 'but Maduro worse.' Taking the hyperbolic claims literally, Trump is still better, because Trump's avarice/greed/etc. doesn't come with the police state repression of the Chavistas.
None of which means today's intervention a good idea / will work as planned / etc. But it's very hard to overstate just how bad the Venezuelan situation has been for quite some time. Appeals to 'but it could be a bad war!' lose some resonance when the status quo is already equivalent to some of the bad wars being raised.
America destablized Venezuela, put sanctions on Venezuela and the result was chaos in Venezuela. If the goal was to bring down Venezuela by making the people hate their government that goal will cause mass migration. The situation being bad in Venezuela is a reason to help Venezuela if anything. Chaotic failed state neighbours end up doing to America what Syria did to Europe.
functor, functor, functor. Why do you have to deny the achievements of the global south? The Chavistas worked so hard and succeeded at sparking an even greater mass migration exodus than Syria all on their own.
The PSUV spent so much time wrecking the capitalist economy, cracking down on dissent, stealing everything they could, employing gangs and narcos to attack their opponents, and drove more people to flee Venezuela than fled Syria. They did so for decades over the protests of the Americans, and their neighbors, and their own people, in proud acts of defiance and national sovereignty. There's a reason even those who try to blame the American sanctions studiously try to avoid having to establish any relative share of responsibility for the economic consequences of Chavez's, ahem, distinctive economic model. Why, I bet even you will studiously try to avoid answering that prompt, and will try to bypass that uncomfortable, overshadowing context once more.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link