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Notes -
The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
Getting Maduro personally is the easy part. All of the interests that he represented and championed are still there. How is an American puppet government supposed to have popular legitimacy given that we executed a smash-and-grab over the skies of Caracas in plain sight?
Many of those interests know they would be much happier and richer if they could align with the US and get the oil flowing. That's what the deal Maduro was trying to make was about. Hopefully we get the right general taking charge.
The third world isn't naive enough to think the USA brings prosperity to 3rd world countries these days with the last 40 years worth of examples. This is a western conceit.
The difference is that if you're an Arab, outside of perhaps Syria and Libya, you believe things can get worse. Venezuelans absolutely do not; they believe that for very low baseline reasons, it's impossible for the situation in Venezuela to degenerate further.
It has been darkly amusing people trying to model Iraq or Syria onto Venezuela, however.
Iraq and Syria were as bad as they were because they were sectarian civil wars on ethnic and religious lines, against minority ruler sects that had been suppressing the demographic majority for decades. In turn, those regimes were backed by demographic minorities who knew/feared that, if they lost, they might be genocide/ethnically cleansed. It's not exactly clear who the corresponding ethnic groups are in Venezuela. They were also as bad in part because Syria in particular spent nearly a decade supporting the neighboring insurgency in Iraq... but the Venezulan-supported narcos and gangs are already present in the capital city, by design.
In turn, the Iraq War accusation that the US would steal the oil runs into past and contextual history. In the past, that accusation never actually occurred- the Iraqi oil wells were back under Iraqi control, and largely used to fund the reconstruction and social welfare programs. Which is not what they are currently doing in Venezuela, because in the Venezuela contextual history the Chavistas already stole the oil for foreigners by giving so much away for basically free, especially Cuba, and in the corruption/mismanagement of the state oil companies. An American takeover, Iraq-style, would be unironically an improvement of the oil benefits to the country.
While there are certainly ways for this to get worse, and I am never inclined to rule it out entirely, it warrants a bit more insight than merely 'it's gonna be a quaqmire like Iraq!' or 'but Syria!'
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