This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Trump has given a "red line" to Iran about killing protestors, but we still aren't seeing US involvement as deaths move into the thousands, reportedly. If the regime follows through with its claims, it will be executing many if not most of the thousands it has arrested.
I have an essay on my view that the US/West/Israel should clearly intervene in the Transnational Thursday thread, but the Culture War dynamics strike me as interesting in that it's not really Culture War Classic material. Traditionally, the Left has been soft on Iran and the Right has been hawkish. Iran has tried to kill Trump and Trump officials, as revenge for the Soleimani assassination.
There's a strong anti-interventionist Right and Left. During the 12-Day War, Trump went from tweeting about regime change, to abruptly demanding cessation of hostilities, which Israel and Iran complied with. (I think had the war continued the regime would already have fallen, given how easily Israel was bombing them.) This is something that's already kicked off, unlike the Maduro rendition. My understanding is that action got more popular in the polls having succeeded, though it's an open question what Venezuela's fate will be.
The Right strongly criticized Obama for declaring a red line in Syria, and then backing off. In hindsight, I think it would have been correct to have intervened against Assad. Here, I think there's a clear cost-benefit analysis case, whether you care about the plight of the Iranian people or the amoral realist power dynamics for America First Global Superpower Edition.
IMO he shouldn't intervene. Unlike Venezuela, Iran is a middle east shithole and intervening in the middle east has never worked well because there is no history of democracy and widespread support of theocracy. I'm sympathetic to the protestors but I wouldn't help them.
It really wasn't until the mullahs derailed South Korea-level economic growth.
Turkey is not a shithole, and that's the closest approximation to Iran on a number of levels (though they are not oil rich).
There is in fact a history of democracy and constitutional monarchy. The lack of widespread support for theocracy after nearly 50 years is why we're having this conversation.
I have rather cursory knowledge of the pre-1979 Iranian monarchy but based on this I can say that whatever level of economic growth it was showing was not sustainable. It was rather uneven and had a distorting effect on multiple sectors. Also the Shah was mortally ill and had zero inclination to rule as a monarch and to raise his son to be his heir, and at the same time the monarchy was losing legitimacy overall. The population was being subjected to rapid cultural and economic change that it was unable to adapt to. (One American scholar likened it to trying to make people drink water from a fire hose.) Iran was not and was never going to be South Korea or any Asian Tiger.
The oil boom was obviously not sustainable but the Shah's incompetence was unique. Every other oil state managed to not piss off their entire population.
Is Saudi Arabia not very rich because of oil? Is Turkey (the closest comparison to Iran) not pretty well off without oil?
Iran could have been the combination, and may yet turn out to be.
Economically, the Shah was far, far less incompetent than many of his contemporaries and definitely his successor.
His main flaw in terms of holding power was probably that he was insufficiently ruthless. For example, they let Khomeini go of to France to plot when they could have simply jailed or executed him.
You could argue "he should have been more like the Saudis" and perhaps he should have.
The point is, you should be ruling on easy mode when you have a money printer in the ground, but he still managed to get overthrown, without significant foreign interference.
The Shah is commonly regarded as a weak leader, even by his defenders, particularly compared to his father, Reza Shah. And, ironically, his sister (here we see the problems with hereditary monarchy). He was neither sufficiently brutal, nor sufficiently compromising; not enough love or fear. And he had cancer.
There is a great irony that left-leaning and anti-interventionist types love to harp on Operation Ajax overthrowing democracy and all that, but Mossadegh was simply a stronger strong man and descended from the Qajars--the dynasty Reza Shah overthrew a few decades earlier. Operation Ajax was actually a counter-coup, as Mossadegh was plainly in violation of the constitution to seize the powers he had and refuse to be dismissed. (The mullahs didn't like him either, so in a slightly different universe perhaps there still was an Islamic Revolution.)
The Shah was dealing with leftist and leftist-sympathies in the West, and denialism of Islamism as a risk, and he mismanaged the domestic politics situation at home. His military he lavished upon basically gave up on him.
Rapid economic growth and societal change is actually a risk factor for revolution. All those rural Iranians moving to the cities were more than a bit turned off by the vulgarity of it all. The college kids were listening to commies.
It's a tragedy that could have been avoided with either a more competent Shah, or a less insane West that was soft on leftism and Islamism.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link