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It’s not just that. Once Ukraine gets pushed off its major fortification line around the Donbas and into fields and open steppe, preventing a major collapse of front line gets much harder and more costly. Notice how fast the front is moving along the southern sector. That offensive spent three years jammed up on the Avdiivka-Donetsk-Vuhledar fortifications but once it got passed that it accelerated rapidly.
@Chrisprattalpharaptr
It’s not going great for Ukraine. Losing Pokrovsk is bad because it was a major logistical hub for the whole front. The last major fortification line at Sloviansk-Kramantorsk-Konstantivka is rapidly being surrounded. Once that goes the eastern front is basically cooked. There are also minor incursions into Kharkiv oblast that are gradually being developed into a more major offensive. The Zaprozhia axis is collapsing.
And like @Lizzardspawn was saying, their air defense is basically gone and their logistics are rapidly being diced up with airstrikes. I don’t know what the casulties/manpower situation is but my guess is “not great”.
Overall I would say July-August is when the oh-shit moment comes and it becomes obvious they could lose the eastern half of the country.
Alright, we'll see if I remember to check back in this summer.
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I have heard variations of this every few months for four years now, it’s always the same. Some random town I’ve never heard of with a population of 300 is about to fall which will cause the entire Ukrainian defense to collapse in a matter of days. Nobody is more consistently wrong than pro-Russian “realist” posters on The Motte. I know nothing about the situation but I know you’re wrong
You won’t be talking so tough once Stinky (population 265) has fallen.
Repent, westoid. The spare room in Kovalenko's dacha has been captured with only 300 casualties.
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