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NBA Superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo announces that he is now a shareholder in prediction market Kalshi. Looks like prediction markets are finally breaking into the mainstream. Let's see what the normies think of this:
Some of these comments are also in response to the Kalshi CEO's now infamous quote that, "the long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion."
Turns out people hate this. Scott posted a partial mea culpa last month when he realized that the most common use of prediction markets is negative-sum sports gambling. I don't think the rationalist community has fully internalized how bad this makes us look. Not that we should be overwhelmingly concerned with optics, there are a lot of good things that are very unpopular, but I do wish that when the theory of prediction markets was being hashed out we had gotten more objections like, "theory implies that this machine will systematically extract money from stupid people. Are we prepared to deal with the social consequenses of that?"
How is that a harm of prediction markets, as opposed to just normal gambling? People have been gambling for thousands of years, they're not going to stop now. This is an innate part of the human condition. How much wealth has been squandered by 'people buying crap they don't need' syndrome? A good chunk of world GDP is wasted from that angle, people go bankrupt and suffer tremendously because of this. But we don't shut down capitalism because people lack self-control.
Even accounting for these statistics being fudged to draw headlines, that's still pretty high. Consider storage too, that's apparently a $40 billion market in the US, storing crap that they probably don't need and can't even fit in their houses! People need to learn to accept a reasonable level of responsibility for their actions.
The solution to sports gambling being bad is to just ban it, ban Ladbrokes and whatever else that it's being done with. That will reduce the problem. But we shouldn't pretend that this is in any way new or a problem with prediction markets. The issue is with stupid and weakwilled people being stupid and weak-willed. They'll find some other way to be stupid and weakwilled, abuse different financial products or mobile games. Also, there is an issue with unclear and inconsistent gambling regulation.
This is key. The stats are based on a survey from a company called Clever Real Estate, whose thing is a discounted commission. They appear to have literally called it "Reckless Spending Habits 2024". The range of reliability for these numbers is "entirely made up" to "bogus".
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