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PaperclipPerfector  9d ago (text post)   26050 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026

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I'm happy to concede if the prosecution ends in a conviction. I still think it's more likely than not that they're acquitted (if I had to put a number on it, 70%).

I'm also happy to acknowledge that acquittal doesn't necessarily mean a lack of guilt, but I don't think the British judicial system is so corrupt that it represents null evidence.

So you will go 2:1 on this?

I have 100 British Pounds to your 200 that, contingent on a trial occurring, a guilty verdict is returned. (ie. bet is off if there's a plea bargain; you can have "not proven" or whatever jury shenanigans might be possible in Scotland though)

I'm not sure I trust you enough to hold up your end of the bargain. If, for the sake of example, it was @ArjinFerman offering, I'd take it, though I'd prefer smaller sums like £50:25 since I don't care that much. If you're willing to go through the hassle of finding someone to use as an escrow, while using crypto (which is hassle on my part), sure.

If not, I care about my reputation and epistemics to happily accept being proven wrong, if and when I'm proven wrong.

I'm pretty high trust myself, and can certainly find a way to get you 25 sterling without resorting to crypto -- but if you need someone to hold the dough that's fine with me. Pick somebody and we can both send them some cash -- I don't expect the mills of Scottish justice to grind excessively fast on this one.

I can nominate @ArjinFerman or @Corvos, if they're willing to accept. I'd be happy to not bother with an escrow if you're fine with it, given the lower sums involved.

My proposed terms are clear concessions on an acquittal or conviction, and if this somehow doesn't resolve in 2 years, a general throwing up of hands and acceptance that we're never getting to the bottom of this.

I'm fine with the honour system if you are -- thanks anyways @ArginFerman!

So AIUI -- no resolution if neither of these two is tried on these charges (ie. some plea bargain to a lesser offense would be no bet; a guilty plea on what's described above is probably a win for me though?), or if nothing happens within two years.

In the event of a trial, I need a guilty verdict; "not proven", hung jury, not guilty etc. all resolve in your favour.

If you have any other scenarios we should cover, let me know?

I don't think we have juries here, but that's a nitpick. Those rules sound fine, though I'll note that I'd want the money myself instead of a donation to a charity, though I'd donate if necessary. And if that's the case, it has to be a charity that is legal to donate to in the UK, our free speech norms are a tad limited.

"no donations to the Stormfront server fund," got it.

I'd also prefer the cash -- details on that can be TBD; it depends how private you need to be I suppose, but we can figure it out. (and I'm gonna say ~50/50 we won't have to given the "no bet" possibilities)

Sounds good to me. We officially on?

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