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New week is here, it is time for some culture war (and culture war by other means) news, news not concerning plebeian ball games, aspiring upper class winter games, or top elite human capital tropical island games.
1/ From Demography is Destiny files
It seems world's TFR as a whole is below replacement by now. It is just rough estimate from highly questionable data by anonymous xitter demography nerds, possibly the inflection point already happened few years ago.
What is certain that the exponential growth that began in early 1700's (due to potato, maize and wise leadership of European and Manchu statesmen of the time) is finally over. The line leveled up and will start going down.
Whether it is matter for mourning or celebration, is up to you.
2/ From Elite Human Capital files
Even the most elite human capital is made of flesh and blood(so far) and all flesh must perish.
How billionaires die?
TL;DR: The lessons are: if you are a billionaire, avoid choppers, it is not worth it. Also, do not be a woman.
3/ From Cold War geopolitics files
Cuba is on the ropes, strangled by intensified US blockade, and, unlike in the past, no help is coming.
It is clear now that Venezuelan operation was about regime change in Cuba.
Politically speaking, it can be Donald's crowning achievement.
Marco Rubio will have his revenge, Red tribe boomers get to enjoy one final triumph over dirty commies before they expire (imagine Donald Trump personally tearing down statues of Fidel and Che in Havana just before the midterms), the remaining old style leftists are humiliated one more time. Cuban people gain freedom and democracy (whether Mexico, Colombia or Haiti style is to be seen), ICE finally gets to round up Cubans and return them home. Everyone wins.
4/ From South Asia files
Resistance in Baluchistan embraces grandma power, and is on the roll.
One struggle against colonialism, imperialism, racism, sexism and ageism.
Whether real or PR, it is interesting they think this particular PR is needed. It could be another case of provincials being slightly out of touch with Current Year(TM) zeitgeist, or it could be prescient vision that in negative population growth world, the elderly will be expendable and disposable meat (as we already see in East Europe).
5/ From Eastern European files
Most high-level assassination attempt of the current East European unpleasantness. The target was lieutenant general Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseyev
He seems to be IRL action movie hero, who successfully fought the assassin after being shot in the back twice (while the assassin seems to be boomer who was using gun for the first time in his life)
6/ Gamer affairs + more Eastern European current events files
Most oppressed people in the world, the gamers, are fighting back.
16 years old Muscovite Artem killed one Alexey Belyaev deputy head of Roskomnadzor, Russian media and internet censorship agency. There is severe media blackout about this issue, as if someone was worried.
Xitter anonymous shitposter reactions are overwhelmingly positive. Zoomer gamers are strongly Kulak pilled. As Kulak predicted.
From pure technical point of view, compared with previous event, the difference is palpable.
Lone Zoomer with knife and grudge >>>>> Boomer with gun working for big three letter organization for promise of big payoff. (only mistake Artem made was letting to be taken alive to be raped and tortured for the rest of his life, but no one is perfect)
The Age of Boomers is over. The Time of the Zoomer has come.
Is it possible that this is all some elaborate Russian plot? War hero gets shot 3 times in the back, but lives and fights off his assassin bare-handed. They blame it on the Ukrainians. Makes for great propaganda value. (I'm probably biased because I've been reading Tom Clancy spy novels recently so Maskirovka is on my brain. The Russians are always doing this sort of thing in his books.)
What sense would that make? Russians (the ones that can be reached by staged terrorist attacks on a general, at least) don't seem to need further motivation to continue prosecuting the war; fence-sitters will surely not become more inclined to stay on the fence with further evidence that internal control is weak; everyone who is against them, meanwhile, will be cheering on the attempt and consider it absolutely justified and further proof of Ukrainian pluck and skill. Any general norms against dirty tricks played on enemy leadership were long kicked to the curb by Americans and Israelis.
You can always use further motivation to continue the war. They're relying on volunteers, not conscripts, and this will surely spark a wave of new volunteers. They'll probably play up the "IRL action movie hero" part even more in Russian media, too.
Oh, and this general was apparently from Western Ukraine, so he's practically the perfect model for their "Ukraine is Little Rus" propaganda. He can be a useful spokesman after the fighting ends.
At this point, what I expect to spark new waves of volunteers more than anything is rising compensation along with rising big expenses such as mortgages and cars, not some stale propaganda. It's been five years, infamously longer than The Most Holiest of Patriotic Wars 1941-1945.
At the very least, who's gonna be fool enough to volunteer during winter? If you're going to go to war and can pick when you go, you wait until the season of snow and mud is over.
The best time to join the war is on the end. If one was to join WWII as a Russian the best time would have been to arrive at the front when it was in Berlin and after a tiny bit of action take a selfie at the reichstag.
Russia clearly has the momentum in this war. Ukraine is losing ground faster and faster, Ukraine has rising desertion rates and the highly motivated fanatical elements of the Ukrainian military are largely spent. People want to join the winning team and Russia is clearly the team to bet on at this point.
Ukraine has been losing ground faster and faster for 5 years now, at the risk of repeating myself. I do not recall hearing about the front being in Kiev yet.
What is different about the "momentum" today that wasn't true a year ago, or two years ago, or at any other point where Ukraine was about to collapse any day now?
Aren't you engaging in Atlanticist retconning here?
I'm engaging in describing my experience with reports on Ukraine as I remember it.
Another point: the recruiters ought to have more information on how the war's going than the average potential volunteer does. If they're still offering wads of cash, then it's probably not going to be a 2 weeks walk in the park.
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