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Notes -
Iran - US - Israel War Flareup
“Israel says it has launched attack on Iran, as explosions reported in Tehran”
“The US has begun Major Combat Operations in Iran” - Donald Trump (headline flashed up just now on my phone, no link yet)
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More to follow but thought I’d post quickly for any commenting.
For the Iranian government to fall, there would have to be mass protests today (or maybe tomorrow) coinciding with more strikes. I don’t know, that feels unlikely.
There had just been massive protests, which the Iranian regime has drowned in blood. I am suspicious of exact numbers, but it sounds more that people were beaten into temporary submission with overwhelming violence than that they simply gave up. Uprising is plausible I think.
It is if CIA has significant assets in-country that have already built up networks. The belief that these things just happen organically when the situation is ripe is suspect.
Isn't there another round of uprisings and protests going on right now?
I believe so and I'll concede that it's possible that the people of Iran take control. Personally, I'd be happy if that happened. But I'm skeptical of a disorganized mob being able to effectively stand up to even a very wounded regime. If there's actually an organized group of dissidents on the ground poised to stage a coup d'etat, I think that would have a much better chance at success. There's always the outside chance of a full-on revolution too (counter-revolution, actually). Don't know whether the circumstances in the country make that likely. But again, without a plan, leaders and organization, a revolution could make things far worse.
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I honestly think that if Trump had been fast on the trigger and started targeted bombing IRGC field offices, police stations, local army bases during the height of the last protests it might have been enough. As you say, hard to know for sure but there were at least hundreds of thousands protesting in Tehran which is close to the level where a motivated force can overwhelm non-hardened government sites. But today? There were some renewed student protests this week, but nothing on the level that could topple even a weakened government.
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