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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   16766 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 2, 2026

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Purity test as in not doing a massive regime change war in Iran?

What is the limit? How low can the republicans sink while the base stays loyal? Americans should do what the British are doing by abandoning the torries en mass

Purity test as in not doing a massive regime change war in Iran?

Its possible this will be the proper take at some time in the future. But currently it is not in evidence and not close to in evidence. Trumps previous military interventions have all been short and sweet, and mostly successful. The evidence that this one will not be is ???

As a result, I don't think many people actually care about the intervention itself, they are using it to grind some other axe. For some its pretty obvious: Israel. For others also obvious: TDS. For many others: I cannot tell as of yet.

Purity test as in not doing a massive regime change war in Iran?

Iran as in the regime sponsoring every pack of rabid bugsnipes from here to Timbukthree for the past 47 years?

They helped defeat ISIS.

Two of their neighboring countries were occupied for long periods of time with well over a million dead as a result. Why wouldn't they help them?

The big refugee waves from Europe came from US military interventions that Iran helped shut down

Perhaps if Trump didn't want to lose voters for attacking Iran he should have ran on it and tried to justify it.

Of course, if Trump ran on "we've been at war with Iran for 47 years and under my administration we'll start a regional war" my guess is that he would have just straight up lost the election

I'm just saying it's not quite as black-and-white as it might seem.

if Trump ran on "we've been at war with Iran for 47 years and under my administration we'll start a regional war" my guess is that he would have just straight up lost the election

And if the world was made of pudding, my guess is that it would be a lot harder to build skyscrapers.

What is the limit? How low can the republicans sink while the base stays loyal?

This current situation still appears better than the previous baseline.

Americans should do what the British are doing by abandoning the torries en mass

I would disagree. The UK can afford that better than we can because they are not as polarized; their current situation is a conflict within the local Blue Tribe analogue, with no significant Red Tribe to speak of. This lowers the pressure significantly, and allows maneuvers that are probably not survivable in our context.

The UK can afford that better than we can because they are not as polarized; their current situation is a conflict within the local Blue Tribe analogue, with no significant Red Tribe to speak of.

I don't think that's fair. The European Red Tribe isn't going to look the same as the American one, and while the hard right has it's gripes with Farage, they aren't that different from the American hard right's gripes with the Republicans. On top of that, there's Lowe, who might not be polling high, but ir doesn't seem fair to call him insignificant.

That said, I think you're right about the "can afford" bit starting a new party in Europe, even in a first past the post system like the UK's, seems to be doable with a lot less friction than in a giant country like the US.

I don't think that's fair. The European Red Tribe isn't going to look the same as the American one, and while the hard right has it's gripes with Farage, they aren't that different from the American hard right's gripes with the Republicans.

To give two examples, it doesn't seem to me that there's a European analogue to the Christian Right or to Gun Culture in terms of relatively-large, cohesive and politically-powerful subcultures. It seems to me that this is a two-edged sword. On the one hand, a distinct, cohesive, organized Red Tribe is the reason America is such an outlier politically from the European political scene. On the other hand, it means polarization and thus tribal conflict gets much worse, because legible structure makes coordinating large-scale, serious meanness much easier. And in America, the coordinated meanness is much further along the escalation spiral: we're actually trying to do mass deportations now, and Blues are actually coordinating terrorism to fight back against those efforts.

The UK right is pretty clearly willing to accept the left's electoral victory. Their reasoning, which is in my view correct, is that a left victory will result in very bad policies, which will in turn discredit the left further and rebound in their favor. This is a risky bet, but the risk seems rational and acceptable to me, given their situation. However, a dominant variable in that calculation is that they don't really have much of a choice, because they have no legible path to victory other than that provided by electoral politics.

In America, by contrast, I'm willing to accept the left's electoral victory, for certain definitions of "accept" that do not preclude their leaders and agents being murdered by people on my side, in much the way they have been willing to "accept" my electoral wins, modulo murders of my leaders and agents by people on their side. That doesn't change the fact that if such murders happen to them, they are not going to accept it as I have, and instead are going to escalate to the limits of their capability, or the fact that I will support unlimited escalation in return. Electoral Politics is still plan A in both the European and American contexts, but American politics has a legible plan B, and both tribes having been in a degenerate orbit toward it for at least a decade now.

it doesn't seem to me that there's a European analogue to the Christian Right

Mostly correct.

or to Gun Culture in terms of relatively-large, cohesive and politically-powerful subcultures

Correct.

The UK right is pretty clearly willing to accept the left's electoral victory.

Also (...mostly...) correct. Yeah, Europeans aren't as good at bottom-up organizing, and there isn't anything resembling the American Red Tribe alternative culture and institutions, I just think you're going a bit far when Mr. Brexit is making a credible bid for prime minister, and you're calling it an "intra-Blue conflict".

I now realize I started to type too soon. This is a response to what I thought you wrote for a moment, but didn't really write. Posting anyway.

The UK right is pretty clearly willing to accept the left's electoral victory. Their reasoning, which is in my view correct, is that a left victory will result in very bad policies, which will in turn discredit the left further and rebound in their favor.

Does the UK right imagine themselves as patiently waiting, playing politics while the electorate learns the correct lessons? They don't give off an appearance of being that serious or prepared to me.

I know these polls are volatile -- more like (dis)approval polls of the current boss than anything else -- but stakes are potentially very high. "Treat all migrants as if they are citizens", enfranchise all residents with the right to vote, and accepting "responsibility for the climate emergency and support the people forced to move" are all things that would freak me out. If I read them on an official party platform and saw that party gain steam I'd think it's time to get serious about winning power. Among the numerous plans to stamp out out the last vestiges of industry and productivity there's also the casual pledges to do things like implement all "the reforms proposed" in a 2000 page report. This appears like a 15 year old legacy talking point, but it could also be the most popular pathway to smuggle in more media control.

I do not know too much about UK politics. There may be many good reasons to suspect the Greens will remain marginalized in politics and won't rub off on their failing Labour brethren-- at least not in consequential ways. If there's even a few reasons to take the rise of the Greens seriously, then the prospect of not-racist vote coalescing to empower the pack as many lefty gambits into platform, choose later party, even in limited form, that would scare the hell out of me. Expanding the franchise is already happening in a way that will favor whichever flavor of leftwardly one prefers. I wouldn't want to play chicken with any of this. Not unless I had immense trust in the system. That such a system would apply appropriate constraints until the voters are educated enough to reveal secret weapon Prime Minister Curtis Yarvin.

Does the UK right imagine themselves as patiently waiting, playing politics while the electorate learns the correct lessons? They don't give off an appearance of being that serious or prepared to me.

I know these polls are volatile -- more like (dis)approval polls of the current boss than anything else -- but stakes are potentially very high.

Yes, but keep in mind that it's not just about Greens overtaking Labour, it's also about Reform (Nigel Farage's party) overtaking the Tories. It's hard to frame that as "patiently waiting" IMO.

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