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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   3241 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for March 6, 2026

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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Best Hindsight Trader: If, around 15-25 February, you thought trump was going to attack iran in the next weeks, what should you have done ?

Buy oom USO calls expiring march 20 for 1500 % gain. Which are just repackaged oil futures, but I'm not fucking with margin.

What I did instead: bought oom spy puts expiring march 20. Exited yesterday for modest gains.

Very interesting that the other possibility, short-term oom calls on american oil companies, also wouldn't have worked. Despite the record rise in oil prices, they barely moved. Apparently the market thinks this will all blow over in a week? OK, buying oom calls on oil companies.

It might've worked if you closed the position right at market open, when the euphoria was at its peak.

Resource producers (almost) always lag these kind of spikes because they can't really profit that much from them unless the change is confirmed to be structural.

I don't believe the market anymore. I imagine my counterpart: a guy in glasses looking at the discrepancy between the rising oil prices and the unmoved oil companies; not reacting, because he thinks he knows those companies, their current balance sheets, he has status quo bias; he thinks that surely things will go back, trump will taco, and the future curve has a reassuring bend; but in reality, this is merely probable, it's not sure at all. They are not the same companies they were a month ago; the possibility that the hormuz strait stays closed should be priced in, and it isn't.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent" is definitely the investing phrase of the decade.

Decade?

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