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Notes -
A tiny note on the war
In the previous thread, I got some pushback for suggesting that not only did the US strike the Iranian school in Minab, killing 170 children or something like that, but perhaps it did so intentionally (or at least without remorse for the possible consequences of erroneous targeting). I admit that wasn't fully sincere. I realize that, even morals aside, there is no perceived military value in bombing children, at least not for the US (I do think Israelis may target children of IRGC officers out of their usual Bronze Age blood feud sentiment, Oct 7, Gaza and all, seen enough of their remarks to this effect; but then again they don't operate Tomahawks).
Well now the question on it having been an American strike appears settled. As for the intent – it's not so straightforward:
Does it matter if there was no intent if the United States, as of now, also has a revealed preference to not bother with minimizing such risks, in favor of «lethality» and some zany Judeo-Christian nationalism courtesy the power-tripping macho TV host Pete Hegseth? I believe it does, but marginally; about as much as those girls matter to Lethal Pete. I rest my case.
More to the point. It's remarkable that there's so little discussion of contemporary historical events on here. I won't criticize anyone, be the change you want etc.; but what we are seeing is pretty astonishing from the culture war standpoint. Could someone like Pete be imaginable as the Secretary of War – no, Defense – in 2023? 2019, even? 2016? It looks as if the politically dominant culture of the United States changed overnight. Does everyone just like it too much to find the change worth commenting on?
Left leaning detractors left this forum. The moderate ones are emotionally spent. Right leaning posters are keeping quiet because Trump 2 hasn't delivered the outcomes and they know gloating can backfire.
Modern wars are about limited objectives. You either achieve it within days or pack up and leave. Great powers has great egos. They never pack up and leave, so you get ugly protracted struggles. The Iran war has all the characteristics of a quagmire. The objective is unclear. There are no secondary power structures to take over. It's a giant mountainous landmass that can't exactly be invaded. A protracted struggle will be ugly.
And what's the point of this invasion anyway? What's the limited objective ? Earlier strikes to nuclear sites made sense. Limited objective, achieved overnight. You want the Ayatollah gone ? Who's going to replace him. Will it be someone from the highly trained 200k strong IRGC cadre or a disgraced crown Prince who has never lived in the country ? Who will rise up ? You expect urban Iranians to accept kurdish separatists as their saviors ? You think civilians will take kindly to bombing mosques and schools ?
I believe Trump fired everyone with nuanced views of the middle east, and the remaining bunch now pattern match from events in the wider Asian region. "Iran had protests, just like the Arab spring. If we provide outside support like Obama did, then protestors will overthrow the Ayatollah. Nepal and Bangladesh had 'student protests' that morphed into regime change, maybe we can coax Iran into the same. Pitting rival tribes against each other has worked in Iraq, maybe we could pit the Kurds against the Ayatollah and make it work."
No, you idiots! Iran is one of the world's great civilizations. It's a unified ethno-lingustic-religious identity that's stayed independent for 500 years. Very few countries can claim a stronger internal sense of being a people united. I'm projecting, but this administration's 4chan roots are leaking. "Everywhere outside of OECD+China is a shit hole. All browns are Pajeets and all middle easterners are Muhameds." Yes, it's a straw man. But I've tried looking for a steel man. I can't find one.
Personally, I find myself increasingly frustrated at American policy, and emotional responses don't make for good writing or reading. As a result, I've reduced my engagement on this forum.
Trump should have coherently stated we are bombing Iran because they killed 30k protesting civilians.
He still can - but we both know that he won’t.
It’s going to be an Iraq level mess and nothing good will come of it.
As to your point on Iran and its legitimacy or whatever you were going for, Iran is a dangerous oppressive shit hole that has sustained terrorism over the last several decades. It’s literal dirt.
Maybe they have a great history (I have severe doubts on historical accuracy) but they’re frankly animals that need to be brought up into some sort of abject level of humanity. Even Chinese and China are … people. Iranian people seem to be just swell … but Iran isn’t, and hasn’t been.
Having said all that, we still shouldn’t have bombed - let someone else figure it out for fucks sake.
"Iranians are animals, not people" is well beyond any defensible steelman. Do not post like this.
Fine, but ‘ Iranian people seem to be just swell ‘ follows it.
They’re like, seemingly, some of the better people in the Middle East. I meant what I wrote but my brevity made it come off wrong, seemingly.
Iranian culture? Iranian government? Islam?
You take 1000 Iranians who don’t know they’re Iranian and have them grow up in Canada I imagine they’ll be annoyingly Canadian. They grow up in Iran and here we are.
E: also you’re right, sorry
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