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Notes -
A tiny note on the war
In the previous thread, I got some pushback for suggesting that not only did the US strike the Iranian school in Minab, killing 170 children or something like that, but perhaps it did so intentionally (or at least without remorse for the possible consequences of erroneous targeting). I admit that wasn't fully sincere. I realize that, even morals aside, there is no perceived military value in bombing children, at least not for the US (I do think Israelis may target children of IRGC officers out of their usual Bronze Age blood feud sentiment, Oct 7, Gaza and all, seen enough of their remarks to this effect; but then again they don't operate Tomahawks).
Well now the question on it having been an American strike appears settled. As for the intent – it's not so straightforward:
Does it matter if there was no intent if the United States, as of now, also has a revealed preference to not bother with minimizing such risks, in favor of «lethality» and some zany Judeo-Christian nationalism courtesy the power-tripping macho TV host Pete Hegseth? I believe it does, but marginally; about as much as those girls matter to Lethal Pete. I rest my case.
More to the point. It's remarkable that there's so little discussion of contemporary historical events on here. I won't criticize anyone, be the change you want etc.; but what we are seeing is pretty astonishing from the culture war standpoint. Could someone like Pete be imaginable as the Secretary of War – no, Defense – in 2023? 2019, even? 2016? It looks as if the politically dominant culture of the United States changed overnight. Does everyone just like it too much to find the change worth commenting on?
War is hell. Mistakes happen.
It is not America's job to protect civilians.
Only 8 US dead so far. The campaign is not reckless.
At this point I think that the US doctrine should change to using many dumb bombs. And just say - we don't have the capacity to ensure civilian safety in one kilometer away from a military target and let the other government sort it out.
Why not do some victim blaming though - first putting a school next to military base is stupid, operating the school when knowing war is imminent is stupider. Treating it as just another day in paradise is stupider still. Putting a school in former barracks is once again not a smart move. And it is not as if Iran makes sure to give US information where the real juicy targets are.
here are quotes that are from Al Jazeera article (hardly us friendly outlet)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab-girls-school-strike-as-israel-us-deny-involvement
At some point the best way to keep civilians from harm is not to entangle civilian and military infrastructure together. And what kind of evacuation is sitting in place waiting for parents to pick kids up. Evacuation is get the fuck out of the building and run away.
There should be investigation, and people should be demoted - but it should be for wasting valuable asset and putting the pilot's life and plane at risk for no good reason.
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Seriously??
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Man, how many Japanese kids and teachers were incinerated when we firebombed Tokyo? War is terrible, that's why we shouldn't be overly fond of it.
What's remarkable is less about what happened from 2019 to 2026 and more about what happened in the time prior to that. I'm all for targeted munitions and accurate intelligence and whatnot, but all kinetic action is, frankly, a broadsword. We're lying to ourselves if we imagine otherwise.
I don't even like Hegseth, he's not a particular good Sec
DefWar. But he's right that the military's job is to be lethal. If you want to avoid all that, that's on State.something to realize is that modern people have dramatically much less willingness to accept civilian casualties than our great grandparents did. This constraint causes dramatic shifts in how war is fought in strange ways.
I admit that this is mostly secondhand from reading ROEs but like if we fought wars like we did back in the 40s and 50s the outcry's would be insane
The falklands war had the UK basically do everything in a respectable way, and the most controversial incident from my grandfather's perspecictive (RIP) was like "wow this even caused any controversy at all?" When he saw and read about it. To the old people wars are dramatically crazier than modern day wars. Vietnam Veterans I talk to describing the vietnam war show things that I personally consider abhorrent as just "lol that's war".
We (the average american young person) are soft and that's a good thing! (it makes us less willing to accept wars)
I don't think it's about being old or young. The wars of our great-grandparents' day were existential, at least if you were in Europe. And notably the one party in the Iran conflict for whom this stuff is - rightly or wrongly - somewhat existential is Israel and they are ultimately pretty accepting of casualties. Likewise Ukraine.
If you are American of course it's a bit more complicated, but I still think that WW2 was visibly more urgent from an American POV in ways that created greater tolerance for large-scale casualties. Japan attacked the US; and the Nazi regime were very powerful, very dangerous genuine racial supremacists who had taken over France and Poland, presided over mass bombing and mass executions, and had the explicit goal of ethnic cleansing Eastern Europe for German expansion. Putin just isn't in the same league, and neither is Iran.
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“The team that handles civilian casualties at Central Command, which oversees the Middle East, has dropped from 10 to one.“
So Hegseth gutted the unit that would have wound up with the wokest people in the military. This is why I voted for.
I don’t want civilians killed. But firing that group I 100% support.
Unfortunately I think there are units with even more woke people in them.
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I guess that's the fitting conclusion to the Culture War MAGA arc. Just like "nazi" became "everyone to the right of my AIDS-positive trans activist HR manager", "woke" now means "anyone with higher moral standards than Genghis Khan – like a small unit in a bloated imperial military that tries to reduce collateral damage by fucking checking whether a building marked 10 years ago as barracks is clearly something else now". I mean, a Tomahawk already costs like $2.5M, how much would this red tape add, given the third worldist level of American corruption? Certainly more than the cumulative utility or net worth of 170 brown children, and it's not like the parents could sue (seeing as they're IRGC, you've killed them earlier). Persians aren't quite brown, but that doesn't matter, American category of race has always been a social construct, after all.
Shoe, foot, who/whom, torturer and tortured, master and nigger, Jew and Amalek – that's all there is to American political discourse, when the disparity of power is sufficiently high. You lot were right about the leftists, and the leftists were… uh, all along correct about the right. I should've been more charitable.
I assume normal military people do these checks. The group labeled “check” this are going to be the pure lefties that get in the way of doing anything.
Don’t waste a tomahawk blowing up a school (or any non-useful thing) is what competent people do. You don’t need a specific group outside the command chain.
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This seems to be a standard job for military recon units, doesn't it? Before you fire on a target, confirm where it is and what it is. Shouldn't that be evident? What's the point in creating a separate unit responsible for reducing collateral damage? And then naming it 'Civilian Protection Center of Excellence' to boot?
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Easy to understand - the current world historical habbenings are not only hopelessly grim but also hopelessly stupid.
Overall, too much downer for debate. Even most rational (and rational adjacent) folks do not like being reminded that their fate ultimately hangs on fat orange finger messing with buttons.
This culture was always there, now it is fully in the open.
Remember GWOT, remember the sudden jump of official line from "We do not torture, we are good guys" to "Yes we torture, and we are rather good at it. America number one! YEE-HAW!"
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Ideally, this is the sort of mistake someone gargles their SIG over, but the combination of diffusion of responsibility, fog of war, and the possibility of genuinely insurmountable mistake means it's probably going to just end up rhyming with other past errors.
I'm in the pinch point of several business decisions and the FIRST FRC comp season, so for now even my normal targets-of-discussion (subscribestar TOS clench, federal courts behaving badly, gun law) just go into the bullet point file to be filled out later, and I'll admit that foreign policy has long been one of my weak spots. But there's also a lot of FUD going around, here, and while there's some cowardice in not committing too heavily to positions that could be proven wrong, there's something to be said for people not making vastly confident positions first and then just ignoring their mistakes after.
It's... uh, not a position that has had a long and unbroken history of Absolute Winners. The 2021-2024 option might have sounded more professional, at least when he showed up to work, but he didn't exactly cover himself with honor when it comes to not killing civilians and children with misaimed drone strikes. I guess he didn't get a high score?
Well yeah, this is about culture. I am not appalled by the civilian death toll, 170 is rather low for a major operation as far as these things go. Pete offends me aesthetically.
The perfect two-line summary of the entirety of pro-Trump vs. anti-Trump discourse, isn't it?
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Sure. But if he offends you aesthetically and not on the merits, then don't start in on a death toll.
I understand that there was demand for someone to put on a crisp suit and portray an image of careful and meticulous balance. My take that is that aesthetic gloss is, at best, neutral to the actual thing.
It is the merits, or rather the lack thereof. He is much more concerned with aesthetics than me, only his aesthetics is that of a manchild, an inept, swaggering butcher given big toys that go kaboom, who can't think through such contingencies because his balls are too big for sissy things like minimizing civilian deaths. He can't even react to the news adequately.
My issue is not the death toll but the low-IQ fetishization of lethality as such. The purpose of a military force is to achieve the strategic objectives, not kill more people (not even kill more hostiles). Carelessly killing civilian children is not advancing the primary objectives (to the extent that Trump's USA even has coherent objectives in this Special Military Operation after the Plan A failed); it hardens and legitimizes the regime. Sure, you can kill more and more, you've got bombs and air supremacy and shit, and perhaps in some very Israeli mindset this even makes sense because their fanatical resistance gives you an excuse to whittle down Iran's long-term demographic and economic perspectives rather than get their capitulation and maybe deal with revanchism some other way later. But in a normal human war it does not make sense; it's a straightforward, avoidable negative EV event which he made drastically more likely by gutting the relevant department, for AESTHETICS of LETHALITY and being BASED. I don't know how to make this more obvious. Hegseth is low human capital and so is much of the rest of Trump's cabinet.
And if a war with an actual power comes, he'll slaughter you just the same, with the same swagger. Russians have had these psycho tough boy commanders for centuries. It didn't make us better at war, it's third world shithole default. You've had some too, but almost all of your great generals and commanders were nothing like this.
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This information improves my opinion of Hegseth.
It’s bad enough that I have to pay (taxes) for firing tomahawks at Iran; it’s insulting that I simultaneously have to pay for people to sit around and finger-wag that those tomahawks might do collateral damage. So I am very glad that I no longer have to pay for 90% of those people.
Previously, the US had a - not stellar, but decent - claim at being the country (one of very few) that would at least try to do the good thing, even if it sometimes went against their interests. Frankly, I think that's a good reputation to have! Both internationally, but also domestically when it comes to trust. And personally, I quite liked being able to tell some of my extremist leftist friends that they were far too over-critical about the US military. It's becoming much more difficult to say that every year, and I might stop saying it soon.
And beyond that, I don't think the people who go "isn't it good that the military is more responsible than before to who won the election" fully realize the extent that certain kinds of actions by the military, even if facially democratic, undermine the very real, quite impressive, and somewhat delicate set of agreements that undermine the uniquely stable US civil-military relationship. See here for the best treatment of this idea I've seen.
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To be fair, a Tomahawk that is mistargeted is a few million we could have spent actually hitting the right target.
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Have Americans lost the ability to envision a positive future for their own country? You lead the most powerful and one of the greatest nations ever to exist on this planet. You proudly proclaim your democratic traditions and the spirit of freedom - yet this? Reflexively choosing between the lesser of two evils, unable to craft a positive vision or imagine a way forward, opting to be maximally cynical and completely unconstructive. What the hell is wrong? Seriously what is wrong?
This is the consequence of the Great Awokening. Welcome to the current year.
Hmm. I think it started long before that. Bush winning instead of Gore, 9/11 and the overreaction to it, mass surveillance, Iraq, GFC and not punishing the banksters, then the awokening to keep the plebs divided.
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Was this meant to be in reply to something else? I can't quite see how this fits the above post.
Not seeing the utility in having just enough bureaucratic red tape to ensure swift and lethal force delivery while actually saving a few lives (Iranian lives, a people with an actual civilization, which should have some extra utility), and then lowkey saying “I voted for this” when tragedy strikes. That in my book is being unable to have a positive vision.
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I am not sure how you got from “I am glad that bureaucratic bloat has been reduced” to “Americans cannot envisage a positive future”.
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You’re still paying for them, they’re just doing other, presumably even dumber, things.
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I don't like it. People like Pete Hegseth, Stephen Miller, and Donald Trump seem vile to me. And Trump never seemed vile to me until his second term, in fact I was one of those people who quite enjoyed how much he pissed off "the libs". And I'm still glad that the Trump movement stopped woke overreach. But I think that at this point the time has come to stop the Trump movement. It really seems to me to be a very seedy sort of movement full of twisted weirdoes, sadists, sociopaths, and almost comically corrupt people. And when I say this, I should probably mention that yes, I think the libs are corrupt too. But these Trump people are something else.
It's one thing to believe that Iran should be contained using violence or to want stronger border control. It's another to unabashedly revel in causing pain and to constantly indulge in vice signalling, as these people do.. They seem to be profoundly psychologically disturbed wannabe authoritarians. The "libs" are wrong about so many things, but they are right about these people's character. Unfortunately, as the libs tend to do, they cried wolf about so many things ("Putin has tapes of Trump getting peed on by a hooker!", blah blah blah...) that they fucked up their ability to message the things they actually were right about.
Anyway, after a lifetime of having never voted for either a Democrat or a Republican in a national election, I am seriously considering voting for the Democrats later this year and in 2028.
As for the war, it's kind of looking right now like it won't even liberate the anti-government Iranians. Every day that passes gives the Iranian government more time to track down and kill anyone whom they suspect of even having ever looked at a policeman funny. So what's the point? Nothing that I care about as a positive. Basically the result so far is to just, potentially, give the America-Israel partnership more breathing room to do whatever they want in the Middle East without pushback.
It's all performative though. Hating them is like hating a piñata. Much the same as cheering for them is. Their personas don't represent anything real.
For instance, Stephen Miller has been doing his aggressive anti-immigration schtick for over a decade. Through 2 administrations. Where is immigration in the US today? The same place it has been for the last decade.
Hegseth has been representing the tough guy nothing but business soldier in charge. Yet the US starts a war in the middle east at the behest of Israel that is of no discernable benefit to the US.
Trump, the guy who promised to cut down on immigration and not do any wars in the middle east has resided over all of this. And people still boo or cheer this on as if it where a WWE wrestling match.
It's just so overbearing. As if Trump bending the knee to the Heritage Foundation in his first term wasn't enough, he's been talking about how illegals can stay if they are working. ILLEGALS. Has this rhetoric changed the tune of the left at all regarding orange hitler? Not one bit.
And on the flipside, Obama killed plenty of innocent families. I don't think a department of million men could get anyone to care about dead middle easterners past a single news cycle regardless of who the president is. America really does not care.
What is anyone even cheering for or against? On the ground numbers show no relevant change in any relevant aspect. The American machine is chugging along as usual on its slow downward spiral. And getting anyone to care about that reality is like pulling teeth out of a donkey.
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Literally my 3 favorite people. The guy who gets stuff down at deporting third world immigrants, the dude who suddenly got our military to win again, and the boss of it all.
I could not be happier with what those three are doing for my country.
What do you mean got our military to win again? We always had the power to do this. See Obama and Libya.
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Miller is barely beating Obama's run rate at deporting immigrants. 500K a year instead of Obama's 400K. At this rate he'll be done in (checks notes) 20 years.
Whether it's his fault or he's just outmatched by the liberal barbed wire, he's certainly not "getting things done".
Saying no at the border doesn’t really count as deportation.
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This has long been debunked. It counts turnaways at the border. Trump is deporting people who have been inside the country from the last administration. People don’t even show up to the border now
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From what I heard, the school had previously been part of the military base until it was repurposed, and an AI apparently mistook the old target list for an up-to-date one.
If true, this certainly makes Anthropic seem a lot more justified in their unwillingness to extend carte blanche to the Pentagon....
I don't take the "AI mistook" argument very seriously (although given that they reportedly switched from Claude 4.5/4.6 to GPT 4.1… oh God). The DOW claims they scrutinize targets, there's human in the loop.
The major reason for my suspicion of intentionality was the clause «and the US has demonstrated immense competence in target selection». I actually think highly of the American military, always thought highly of them on priors, and they've been absolutely showboating all over Iranians these last 10 (11?) days. But now that I know Hegseth had gutted the office that's entrusted with avoiding such accidents, it doesn't matter if it originally was AI or human error. There's just not been enough attention to prevent this.
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I think it's because there is so much uncertainty and fog of war, none of us want to go full Panican- "US hegemony over, global economic collapse imminent, US military humiliation" and then some ceasefire happens and be told "see it wasn't as bad as you thought." Or the inverse, people don't want to downplay it, say it's imminently over, but then it has a really bad fallout.
Like I alluded to in my previous response, there is essentially no reaction from the ground. Not from MAGA rank-and-file in day-to-day casual talk, and there is even some sympathy from diehard anti-Trump Democrats I know. Literally today I heard an extreme Trump-hater say something along the lines of "well Iran wants to destroy Israel for some reason, so they obviously can't have a nuke so I understand what Trump is doing to an extent."
The issue seems to have remarkably low cultural salience at the moment outside of X, but of course I think there's a reason for that. I remember Operation Iraqi Freedom, the feeling and interest among public in the opening weeks of the war was nothing like that at all in either direction today. There are Panicans on X and some informed anti-Panicans, but the average voter just doesn't seem to care very much at this point. With that said, what's your prediction? Does this blow over without the average voter taking much notice?
The average voter will care if gas prices are a dollar higher for longer than a couple weeks. Evangelicals are happy and river-to-the-sea lefties are sad, but Americans really don't care about foreign policy that much.
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TPTB found out that propagandizing ordinary plebes is unnecessary distraction, that the war machine can work regardless of plebe "support" or "approval".
We will see if they are right.
Unless the situation directly touches average voter's wallet. Then all bets are off.
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Speaking of the school strike, I'll take this opportunity to post a contender for the Hall of Fame of cope tweets.
This guy thinks that a KH-55 (air-launched) cruise missile was fired by Iran, and then got jammed by the US in a way which just so happened to cause it to nosedive straight down into a school that was 100 feet away from an IRGC facility which completely unrelatedly was targeted by real US-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. His evidence? AI analysis of the grainy video of a high-subsonic missile puts the wing fins at 40-45% of the way down the fuselage, whereas a Tomahawk has wing fins 50% of the way down the fuselage.
7.4 million views and 34k likes by the way.
There is a paradoxical sentiment amongst a certain segment of Americans* which simultaneously holds that the US military is a force of warrior-saints who would never commit target civilians (whether by accident or deliberately), but also that a we're too worried about moral and legal niceties.
I supposed the charitable resolution of the paradox is that if the military is staffed by paragons then there's no need for oversight, but this is both observably ridiculous (we have a number of well-documented instances of US military covering up or soft-balling war crimes, as well as many instances of target selection that was either reckless or callous) and belied by the overt appetite for brutality.
*tbf this is not unique to Americans, but given that the US gets stuck in a lot more, it's more salient
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In a somewhat pitiful way, that makes me think better of Americans. They really really don't want to be the kind of people who murder children, and cling to any flimsy "proof" to the contrary.
Russians had similar denialism around Buk vs Boeing, around Bucha, and later in the war when we've destroyed a bunch of grotesquely innocent civilian facilities in Ukraine. Now there's more indifference.
The best moment in this cope story, imo:
Diasporoids are funny, man.
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