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Notes -
A tiny note on the war
In the previous thread, I got some pushback for suggesting that not only did the US strike the Iranian school in Minab, killing 170 children or something like that, but perhaps it did so intentionally (or at least without remorse for the possible consequences of erroneous targeting). I admit that wasn't fully sincere. I realize that, even morals aside, there is no perceived military value in bombing children, at least not for the US (I do think Israelis may target children of IRGC officers out of their usual Bronze Age blood feud sentiment, Oct 7, Gaza and all, seen enough of their remarks to this effect; but then again they don't operate Tomahawks).
Well now the question on it having been an American strike appears settled. As for the intent – it's not so straightforward:
Does it matter if there was no intent if the United States, as of now, also has a revealed preference to not bother with minimizing such risks, in favor of «lethality» and some zany Judeo-Christian nationalism courtesy the power-tripping macho TV host Pete Hegseth? I believe it does, but marginally; about as much as those girls matter to Lethal Pete. I rest my case.
More to the point. It's remarkable that there's so little discussion of contemporary historical events on here. I won't criticize anyone, be the change you want etc.; but what we are seeing is pretty astonishing from the culture war standpoint. Could someone like Pete be imaginable as the Secretary of War – no, Defense – in 2023? 2019, even? 2016? It looks as if the politically dominant culture of the United States changed overnight. Does everyone just like it too much to find the change worth commenting on?
I think it's because there is so much uncertainty and fog of war, none of us want to go full Panican- "US hegemony over, global economic collapse imminent, US military humiliation" and then some ceasefire happens and be told "see it wasn't as bad as you thought." Or the inverse, people don't want to downplay it, say it's imminently over, but then it has a really bad fallout.
Like I alluded to in my previous response, there is essentially no reaction from the ground. Not from MAGA rank-and-file in day-to-day casual talk, and there is even some sympathy from diehard anti-Trump Democrats I know. Literally today I heard an extreme Trump-hater say something along the lines of "well Iran wants to destroy Israel for some reason, so they obviously can't have a nuke so I understand what Trump is doing to an extent."
The issue seems to have remarkably low cultural salience at the moment outside of X, but of course I think there's a reason for that. I remember Operation Iraqi Freedom, the feeling and interest among public in the opening weeks of the war was nothing like that at all in either direction today. There are Panicans on X and some informed anti-Panicans, but the average voter just doesn't seem to care very much at this point. With that said, what's your prediction? Does this blow over without the average voter taking much notice?
TPTB found out that propagandizing ordinary plebes is unnecessary distraction, that the war machine can work regardless of plebe "support" or "approval".
We will see if they are right.
Unless the situation directly touches average voter's wallet. Then all bets are off.
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