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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   8704 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 16, 2026

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There is enough global strategic reserve capacity to cover the missing 20% of global production for about 6 months. There will be a ground invasion of Iran if the strait is still substantially closed after 3 months (you can quote me on this). My guess is that oil stays below $125 unless Iran sinks an aircraft carrier or something.

Regarding your efficient market hyopthesis point, a lot of the guys selling futures for West Texas Intermediate are oil drillers in Midland, not geopolitics analysts. You can take their money if you're paying attention.

There is enough global strategic reserve capacity to cover the missing 20% of global production for about 6 months.

Sadly this is not even remotely true due to the max rate we can get those reserves to market. Generally the max estimate for how fast you can get the reserves out is ~4.4 mbd, which is itself only about a fifth of the missing supply.

You might want to check your sources for this, various number are made up, overestimates, assume unrealistic flow, or allow sour oil. For example the US SPR get sour and slow when it gets low. Perhaps we can't even get out what we put it. And OPEC states have had an incentive to over claim their capacity for years. The West also over promises. You should only take demonstrated capacity, not claimed.

Sour product's more important now because while the gulf makes up 20% of overall production, its refineries were producing half of exported "specialty" products. American fracking mostly produces on the lighter end too (besides gassing out).

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