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As a Republican who was broadly onboard with toppling Iran well before the most recent flare up, I would like to offer an alternate narrative to the one about Trump is a Joe-Biden-esqe meat puppet being controlled by a zionist cabal, that seems to be the popular consensus here.
First off what does winning look like, in the eyes of team Trump?
Ideally, Iran makes a credible and verifiable commitment to dismantling their nuclear weapons program and stop supplying arms to HAMAS, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Russian Federation, Et Al. Less Ideally, we turn them into a failed state that wouldn't be able to muster up a nuclear weapons program even if they wanted one. If the choice is between reducing Iran to Afghanistan-esque hodge-podge of pre-industrial warring tribes and giving the IRGC access to nuclear missiles we choose to turn Iran into another Afghanistan.
Importantly we are not going to do the Clinton or Obama thing where we give them a whole bunch of cash and trade concessions in exchange for a pinky-promise not to act up again and then sit on our thumbs when they renege on those promises 6-monthes later. While I'm not privy to the specifics my guess is that the plan is to hold Kharg Island hostage to force Iranian compliance.
How is this in American interests? I think it is just as valid to ask as how is it not?
While there is something of an isolationist streak present in the online right the prevailing attitude amongst the wider GOP is that if the US is going to occupy the role of hegemon we must play the role.
First, I think it needs to be pointed out that, with the Biden-era environmental limits removed the US is once again a net petroleum exporter and the US economy is much better situated to weather possible energy-trade disruptions than say China is.
As the global hegemon, international trade flows freely (and for the most part safely) largely thanks to guarantees that are enforced by the US Navy. If the US is the world's cop, Iran is not some innocent brown kid who got shot for no reason, they're the habitual bad actor with dozens of prior complaints and arrests.
From my perspective democrats' attitude towards the Iranian regime seems to echo their attitudes towards illegal immigration, violent crime. If you ask them if they want violent schizophrenics on the train they'll answer "no", but at the same time they will vehemently oppose anyone who looks like they might try to stop violent schizophrenics from stabbing people on trains. They seem to view the occasional train stabbing or ballistic missile attack as simply the price of doing business.
Essentially none of the comments like this are worth a dime if they don't contend with the progress in the negotiations, and in Iran's compliance with the former deal that Trump ended. Because you aren't even trying to lay out the case for why the escalation path you proposed is lower-risk than making another deal.
We have people here talking about how "oh we just bomb their desalination plants, and yeah maybe they retaliate against the Gulf desalination plans and oil infrastructure and bring the entire region to chaos, mass regional humanitarian crisis, likely mass refugee crisis, risk the global economy, but it's worth it." The fact is, if you are an American, the risk equation is UNAMIBUGOUSLY AGAINST this escalation path. It's only Israel that stands to benefit from this escalation path, nobody else in the world does so. There is no universe in which this escalation path is worth the alternative "risk" of continuing negotiations that, by all accounts other than Kushner and Witkoff, two Zionist Jews who were regarded as Israeli assets by diplomats involved in the negotiation, were proceeding very well.
This is why the Zionist element is the only explanation for why an American would accept this risk to their own interests and the global economy to scuttle those negotiations. This is also why, when someone like you lays out the case for this escalation path, you basically ignore the alternative and much lower-risk path that all parties agreed was alive and progressing well, but then was sabotaged by Witkoff and Kushner at the very moment they made the greatest progress by all accounts.
You also ignore the fact that Iran's hostility towards the US is downstream from our alliance with Israel. So that hostility and the risks associated with it are another cost of the Zionist integration in America. So every step of the way, from the first step to "bomb their desalination plants" is being influenced by Jewish interests, not American interests.
Iran's hostility to America starts with the hostage crisis and continued through its support for Hamas and Hezbollah, through attacks on Americans in Iraq, through its tendency to kidnap American citizens passing through Iran, through cyberattacks, through missiles and drones used to attack American allies, through dozens if not hundreds of attacks on America and its allies in the Middle East. Really, this is ridiculous, Iran is not poor little innocent Iran, they are one of America's greatest and most consistent enemies. They have been for fifty years. They call us the Great Satan. Maybe in some alternate timeline where we weren't allies with Israel we could hold hands and sing kumbayah. So what?
The Hill: Inside Iran’s long history of attacks on US: A timeline
Most of this argument is pretty weak if you don't agree with the underlying implications that we should care about collateral damage done to Americans who willingly choose to head into the volatile middle east.
To me it's like going to North Korea, I feel bad for you but it's still your own fault if they kill you, not our responsibility. If you do contract work in Iraq instead of staying home, you're willingly putting yourself into that situation. If you get kidnapped in Israel, blame Israel and yourself. Especially when we already give them billions of dollars.
Why should we not care about Americans attacked abroad? To me this reads like a kind of nihilism, it's ok if part of the world is made ugly and dangerous because it's not my responsibility. So, retreat? Americans bombed in Israel are fair game because neighboring Iran is unstable. What's the logical next step? Americans in Europe are fair game because neighboring Middle East is unstable? Americans in London are fair game because neighboring Europe is unstable?
I don't want to suggest infinite responsibility here either, but it's not compelling to say that we have no responsibility anywhere. The Founders went to war in Tripoli over this kind of stuff.
"To me it's like going on the bus, I feel bad for you but it's still your fault if someone assaults you, not our responsibility." How is this different in principle?
If we should care about what happens to people for their own choices to travel into dangerous parts of the world, honestly where does it end? Do we start bombing if a tourist gets pickpocketed in Spain? If a US citizen in singapore gets a lashing for chewing gum?
We are not the world's police.
Why should the US be responsible for defending London? The British should be able to defend themselves. I'm all for alliances, defense agreements, etc but if a country can't handle themselves then we should be able to tell them to fuck off.
A bus in the US should have the people following our laws. Criminals will still exist, but we have police for that. Or at least are suppose to have police for it.
If you leave the US and travel to Assaultistan and get assaulted, well too bad. We aren't the world's police.
Who patrols the sea lanes? Who keeps the oil flowing? When Russia invades Georgia or Ukraine, which country does the world turn to do something?
This is just words, it doesn't mean anything. You're for alliances that help British defense but they "should be able to defend themselves". Well which is it, should we help them or should they help themselves? This is the question I posed in the first place. You have to actually draw a line somewhere.
The example was Americans traveling to Israel getting assaulted by Iran.
It sure seems it was flowing until war started. As for Ukraine and Georgia, what much have we done? We've provided financial aid and sold Ukraine weapons, but that's not being the world's police. I'm fine with charity or trade. It should make sense and be efficient, like PEPFAR saving individuals lives in poor countries makes more sense as a charity than giving money to Israel's military so they don't have to divert from their universal healthcare and free upper education.
But being charitable to victims isn't the same as rushing in guns blazing.
Alliances like this are supposed to be mutual. We get help when we are attacked and they get help when they are attacked. But they still need to be pretty sufficient on their own. If Britain is slacking, I think we would be perfectly in the right to tell them to do better or we quit our end.
Then Israel should do better, or Americans should wisen up to the risk and not take it instead of expecting everyone else to spend billions and billions to bail them out for their dumb choices. Once you leave the country, you've given up most of our responsibility to you (unless you're like an official representative or something).
The idea that we should go to war for Americans abroad because we are responsible for them but not get them out of war zones because we aren't responsible for them is a pretty major contradiction here too. If anything, the latter is something we're more responsible for given the whole we started it part of the war.
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