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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   17838 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 23, 2026

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Iran has not really closed the straits. Despite what’s been reported some vessels have never stopped making the crossing. Risks are higher and costs have adjusted but Iran has failed to actually project its will.

If I understand what you're implying that's not true. In the early days of the war several carriers risked it, and a few were hit for their trouble. Since Iran claimed to have closed the strait, only ships given permission by Iran have made the trip (since at least the last week). Iran has been fairly generous with its "permission" so that has resulted in some decent traffic -- but at least at the moment Iran has been projecting their will on the strait.

It should be noted that traffic through the strait is a small fraction of its pre-war throughput even with recent 'upticks.' Whether or not Iran can properly close the strait, shippers clearly think the risk is high enough that they're not willing to risk it.

Whether or not Iran can properly close the strait, shippers clearly think the risk is high enough that they're not willing to risk it.

"Shippers" meaning the London insurance cartel.

I don't think the counterfactual of a more distributed insurance market (or no insurers) changes things. Any way you imagine slicing it, someone is on the financial hook for these ships.

In a non-cartel market, the insurers can't refuse to insure in order to pressure the US to restore the situation where they were getting war risk premiums when there was no war risk.

Yes but they also still don't insure any ships sailing through the straights as the insurance math simply doesn't work. There's no premium you can charge to offset this risk.

So says the cartel.

...according to Iran. Conveniently, Iran has graciously extended its permission to every ship that has tried the crossing and succeeded. On the ground there are many ships that have made the crossing, such as some Greek oil tankers. Everything is down from where it was a month ago but the strait is not entirely closed because Iran's capacity to project its will is no longer there. It can harass ships and increase the risk, and that only temporarily.

The major question is not whether America will guarantee the straits but how they will do it. Right now it seems likeliest that they will negotiate a deal with Iran's remaining leadership simultaneous with an international fleet as a show of force. But if we wanted to we could always go back to bombing Iran into the stone age etc.

In the early days of the war several carriers risked it, and a few were hit for their trouble

I'm assuming by "carriers" you mean bulk and/or oil, not aircraft carriers?

For reasons that never occurred to me to question until this moment, we refer ships carrying oil as "tankers" and ships carrying gas (lng) as "carriers". Oil has gotten the spotlight in the war but I think LNG has been equally as important. The US exports quite a bit of LNG but it's all on the east coast. Africa exports on its west coast. If you want LNG and you're east of Africa, without the strait Australia is about your only option.

But yeah, to your point, not aircraft carriers.

I was actually looking at ONI's analysis of Iran's Navy from 2017 today, and I believe it said the percentage of the world's LNG that passes through the Strait is higher than oil. So yes, definitely important... the US and Europe are probably fortunate it's after the cold weather.

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