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Notes -
Third Gulf War Negotiations Thread
As we approach the end of the 5 day pause(?) before the USA ramps up attacks again, reports are coming in that the Trump team has sent Iran a 15 point plan for peace. I don’t think the full text has been credibly made public at this time, as should be expected, but from what I’ve gathered the points can be reduced from redundant and detail points, Iran gives:
— Iran stops funding proxies abroad, especially Hamas and Hezbollah
— Iran pinky promises to never get a nuclear weapon, surrenders nuclear material, agrees to various future restrictions/inspections
— Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz
In exchange Iran gets:
— Full sanctions relief, including removal of the snapback provisions that removed sanctions would go back on Iran immediately if Iran violated the agreement
— American assistance with their civilian nuclear program.
Iran, after denying that negotiations were happening at all, has come back with the following demands:
— Bombing of Iran ends, assassination of Iranian officials ends, guarantees that it won’t start again
— Reparations
— Recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait of Hormuz
— They won’t negotiate with Steve and Jared, only with JD Vance
Trump has delayed bombing Iranian civilian infrastructure for this week, while Iran has let some ships through the strait as a gesture of good faith, or as Trump put it a “very expensive present.”
Now none of this is being reported clearly, and this all might be bullshit, and maybe one or both sides is engaging in distractionism.
But I’m filled with a deep sense of disquiet and defeat. The Iranian regime is rebuilt, reinforced, made more powerful. The Iranian regime is given new credibility, where before my diasporic friends could claim that with a push the rotten structure would collapse, now they know it will not. Iran gets effective, if not formal, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran gets sanctions relief. Iran gives up more or less nothing, just some fissionable material that is easily enough replaced and a few proxies that have already been degraded. I don’t really credit the promises Iran is making here for much, especially if the snapback provision is removed.
Giving Iran anything after they close the Strait is tantamount to recognizing their sovereignty over it, de facto if not legally. Simply by asking for it, and then making a deal, Iran is going to be perceived as getting sovereignty over the strait. The USA, by accepting Iran's "gift" of letting ships through the strait, is already acknowledging that Iran has control of the strait! And this would be disastrous.
The flip side is that there’s little guarantee that the US would keep its promises in the future, but that doesn’t feel very good to me either. I’m not sure where I see the off-ramp at this point that isn’t a full invasion of Iran.
Another view is that given the conditions, this isn't really the Iran war, it's the Lebanon war and the Iran war is a sideshow and a distraction. The casualties are higher in Lebanon, there are troops on the ground in Lebanon, Israel is considering expanding its territory into Lebanon, occupation will inevitably result in settlements which will not be removed, etc. Perhaps the purpose of the Iran war never had anything to do with Iran herself, which is why the goals against Iran never seemed achievable, but were instead more local to protecting the Israeli homefront against Hezbollah. The USA distracts Iran and forces it to accept Hezbollah's defeat.
I suppose at least we’ll get good pistachios and saffron now? I’d love to see sanctions relief on a personal level, and I think sanctions are a wildly ineffective method of international relations, but on a geopolitical level this seems like the US admitting defeat.
I think it would be great for mankind if Iran winds up controlling the strait, as this would constitute a powerful deterrence against future powers that plot unjustified wars without regard for humanitarian consequences. If this deterrence is permanently inked into history, then it could save millions of lives in the future when leaders read about the aggression of America and Israel against the underdog Iran. This would be good for Americans in America, because we will not be top dog forever; in a century or two we may find ourselves in Iran’s place with a more powerful China attempting to oppress us and conquer us. Giving Iran the strait would be a great reparative act for a country that does not deserve the families of its scientists blown up and its economy placed under crippling sanctions just because their civilization makes Israelis and Zionists uncomfortable and envious.
Ultimately there is nothing more important than justice and securing peace, at least not if you’re a member of the Christian West called to be peacemakers. If this reduces our power and prosperity, then that’s an adequate sacrifice for twenty years of mistakes we refuse to learn from. So perhaps we can learn from this one and boot the warmongers out of power. Obviously, we did not learn anything from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Palestine. So maybe those who worship power will learn something from a decline in American power, and maybe Israelis will learn something from relentless missile strikes on their cities. I’m doubtful, but it’s possible.
This is just way too credulous man, the line that "if you kill your enemies they win" was only ever supposed to be a meme.
Like, what are we talking about? You want your enemies to have power over you? Do you think this makes you stronger?
When in human history did great powers losing wars deter future great powers?
If you think American aggression against Iran is unjustified you have absorbed far too much third world propaganda. Do you think it would be good if Iran got nuclear weapons too?
We should lose the war with Iran (making America weaker) so that in one hundred years if America is weaker we will be stronger? Why not just win our wars now so that America is stronger?
That future won't come to pass if Iranian oil isn't supplying China's economic base.
Those scientists are building Iran nuclear weapons so that Iran can project its power across the Middle East, and ultimately the world, in direct hostility to your interests. I think even the actual pacifists and Amish and Quakers et al. are not this credulous about the virtues of peace.
If you are Christian the most important thing in the world is getting right with God. Justice and peace are secondary to that ultimate goal. The Christian tradition in fact contains a lot of debate about the subject of war and just wars, which doesn't disappear just because you believe in pacifism. A very foolish form of pacifism where your enemies who hate you and in fact want to destroy Christendom would acquire power over energy and nuclear weapons if your vision won out.
Finally, to complete the set, it must be pointed out that America and Israel are winning. The comeuppance you are imagining is not coming.
Look I find it annoying to write these posts where each claim is rebutted on its own line and I imagine people find them annoying to read too. But there are some serious howlers in here that merit breaking down because they produce a very disordered line of thought. You seem to be saying, in effect, that America and Israel are losing (delusional, frankly), but that this loss is good (delusional again) because it will protect America when America is weak (which will only happen if America loses). America will be protected in our lose by our virtue in losing?
Frankly it's easier for me to understand this theory as the product of a meme parasite that's serving some sort of emotional function than as the product of anything rational. But I don't think is consistent on its own terms or with what is actually happening in the world. Iran is not an innocent poor benighted country -- they played power politics and lost. Had they won there would not be some flourishing of the human dialogue but they would work to directly attack your values because they see themselves as your enemy. Instead of that America wins, which is actually good for liberty, freedom, justice, peace, and ultimately the value of Western Civilization taken as a whole. Which is after all why we're all here in the first place.
Israel and the US have long tried to kick that can down the road (sometimes brilliantly bloodless like with Stuxnet, more often through bombing and murder), but don't tell me that killing their supreme leader was about preventing them from gaining nukes.
I would prefer if Iran did not get nukes, but even if Trump's plan (add scare quotes to taste) prevented this, it is entirely possible that the price for it is too high. For one thing, even with nukes Iran is not a threat to North America any more than North Korea is.
Of course, if past bombings gave good reasons why Iran would want nuclear deterrence, the present war gives them excellent reasons.
Sure, perhaps their plan is to mutually annihilate Iran and Israel the minute they have enough nukes, but with Nethanyahu in charge I simply find myself not caring much. If the religious crazies really want to murder each other, that is not sufficient reason to drag civilized countries into it preemptively.
Ok what was it about then?
Look you don't have to like Trump or agree with him in all cases but to imagine he doesn't have a plan for anything he wants to do is basically to deny any theory of mind for Donald Trump. I think it's TDS by another name. It's not even entirely up to Trump, obviously the American and Israeli militaries had plans and backup plans upon backup plans wargamed out for decades. When people say things like this I suppose that they live too much in the 24-second news cycle and don't have much of a frame of reference beyond that.
Of course, and if Iran has good reason to pursue nuclear deterrence, the justification for bombing is excellent.
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