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This is more geopolitical than culture war. There is a guy with naval experience that has been writing a theory that the US does not want to open the Straight of Hormuz. And Trump has hinted at the thesis. Especially Europe but the rest of the world has depended on the US to keep global shipping open. Europe also looks down on the US as Neanderthals. They do not have the guns to go do things like reopen the Straight and are dependent on the Americans. The US does not directly suffer from the closure as we do Neanderthal things like put little straws in the ground all over Texas sucking oil out of the ground. Europe hurts much more than the modern US today in an energy crisis (US may be net winner).
Besides being a nice FU to Europe it also exposes their geopolitical weaknesses as real. Which hopefully gets them to do things like build big guns, drill for oil, restart nuclear programs, forget Greta ever existed, etc. Which long-term I believe a strong Europe is in Americas interests. America’s relationship with Europe historically and especially Dems has been to go over there and talk nicely to them. Trump has a different philosophy which is basically poke them with a stick. On immigration it does seem like Europe is getting better.
And here is the article. [https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait] (The Hormuz Hypothesis)
He talks about it more on his twitter. I am mostly posting this to see if he’s crazy or is this a good example of Trump playing 4D chess.
Edit: Based on early comments FU Europe is appropriately culture war
That analysis would have value (and good chance of being true) if Kissinger was alive and in charge. Unfortunately Washington is completely taken over by the IYI class and the MAGA implants are ... not that cunning.
Trump has great instincts in finding problems and opportunities and very bad instincts about finding a solutions and realizing them.
For the Iran situation - all of the 3 big players - US, EU and the gulf know that Iran has to be beaten into compliance once it started. Right now they are just playing a dance because everyone wants the others to pay for the solution.
Or hoping one of the others comes up with a solution - as @RandomRanger and @Goodguy pointed out, if Trump had a plausible way of pulling off a YUGE WIN he would take it, and we all know that the EU and the Gulf Arabs are too weak militarily to open the Straits (other than by cutting a deal with Iran) if the US can't. The only country that might be able to do pull out a win the Americans can't is Ukraine, because they actually understand modern drone-first warfare. I think it is possible but unlikely that the Ukraine-Saudi alliance turns out to be a Big Deal, but I have no idea what happens after that.
If the US bugs out, there are a lot of people with a shared interest in cutting a deal. A return to normalcy in the Gulf is good for almost everyone, apart from Russia, the US domestic oil and gas industry, and Trump's ego, and good for Iran most of all.
Ukraine can't open the straits because there's essentially three ways of opening the straits against the will of the Iranian regime.
Destroying the Iranian regime. Then you have a new regime which presumably will not be shooting at ships. Ukraine can't do that; it's an open question if the US can.
Completely and provably destroying the current regime's capacity to shoot at ships. Even one potential remaining drone within range is too much for the insurers. I do not think this is possible for anyone, let alone Ukraine. Ukraine knows modern drone warfare (because they invented a good deal of it) but they take losses.
Substantially destroying the current regime's capacity to hit ships, and insuring them to accepted international standards outside the cartel. The US might be able to do this; Ukraine definitely can't do the insuring part, and I don't think the Saudis can either (they have the money but they're not named as proper certifiers in the treaties).
Ukraine invented it, Russia perfected it. And both countries are not that successful with it anyway.
Just beat insurers over head. Larry Ellison and Elon Musk will jump over the opportunity.
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