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Notes -
I have never watched Mad Men, but there is this meme where two men are in an elevator. The first says, "I feel bad for you." The second says, "I don't think about you at all."
If you had two stickers, one labeled US and one UK/EU, which sticker would you put on the first man, and which on the second?
On the first thought, maybe you'd put the US sticker on the guy who says, "I don't think about you at all." Because after all, the US is a superpower that just Leeroy Jenkins its way through foreign affairs and seems to have grown increasingly disinterested in what Europeans have to say about it.
When people are polled, however, something interesting emerges: https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-trump-is-making-china-great-again-and-what-it-means-for-europe/
Here is one poll question: Generally speaking, thinking about the US, which of the following best reflects your view on what they are to your country?
In Switzerland, 21% of people view the US as "An adversary—with which we are in conflict" compared to just 8% as, "An ally—that shares our interests and values." They seem to be on the extreme for Europe. The UK seems to be on the other (European) extreme: 25% view the US as "An ally—that shares our interests and values." The EU10 is in the middle at 16% seeing the US as an ally.
The reverse was polled to Americans: Generally speaking, thinking about the EU which of the following best reflects your view on who they are to your country?
The total for the US was 40% who would agree that the EU is "An ally—that shares our interests and values." This percentage is higher in Harris voters than Trump voters, but importantly, Trump voters were still at 30%, which is higher than even the UK's rosy view of the US compared to the rest of Europe.
Another interesting question is: Which of the following best reflects your view on the EU's global standing?
46% of Americans said, "The EU is a power that can deal on equal terms with global powers, such as the US or China." Comparatively, EU10, Switzerland, and UK were all in the 30s of percentage points. There seems to be a gap between how important/capable the US thinks Europe is compared to Europe's self-perceptions.
The pattern emerges that people in the US are more likely to think that the people of Europe are both capable and share our interests and values, while the people of Europe disagree. I don't know who is right, but I think it is important for both groups to be aware of this emerging dynamic.
The US used to be "we don't think of you at all" with respect to the EU -- they would do dumb stuff which harmed us but harmed them more (non-tariff barriers, messing with tech companies, buying Russian gas, etc) and the US really wouldn't react much. Under Trump II it's become a more openly adversarial relationship. Spain is almost an open enemy now (and has been since the Madrid bombings) and France is headed that direction.
ETA: Things are changing fast, France is now an open enemy if Bloomberg headlines are to believed.
Spain is fast rising up the ranks in how much respect I have for different European countries, France is still on top thanks to IVPITER Macron but that may be changing next year. Hungary may be about to get a bounce soon as well.
With what Spain did about the illegal immigrants last month - they don't deserve respect. I don't need more ex-illegals free to travel in the Schengen area.
I'm not a fan of that either, illegal migration is a net negative and the correct way to handle stuff if you need more people it to increase legal migration where you can filter who's coming in to ensure they are a net fiscal benefit in expectation, however that's their prerogative if they want to legalize a bunch of illegals and the other Schengen countries can complain (I would if I were them) but they seemed to have kept mum about it.
No - the right way is the gulf states model. No path to citizenship whatsoever.
Sure, that can work when it also comes with 0% income tax for migrants, it might make the locals in Europe throw their own little tantrum when companies start preferring migrants on 45k to locals on 50k because the migrant gets more money in their pocket getting paid 45k vs the local getting paid 50k after income tax. There's no reason for migrants to choose EU states over gulf states if there's no path to citizenship but they still have to pay taxes like a citizen, and no, Europe can't slash income taxes to near 0 for everyone like the Gulf states can, mostly because of its own obligations it's decided to take on towards its own lower classes.
Some European countries like the Netherlands and Denmark already have versions of lower taxes for recent migrants compared to citizens for like a decade or so but it's nowhere near enough what would be necessary if the citizenship prize wasn't available.
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