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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   9930 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 6, 2026

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IRAN WINS IRAN WAR

President Trump on Truth Social:

"Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Iran foreign minister Araghchi confirms the agreement.

  • No regime change

  • Assurances of "safe" passage through the strait of Hormuz, but no assurance of "free" passage.

  • Absolutely no mention of uranium, enrichment, or nuclear weapons.

  • No mention of proxies.

  • Possible sanctions relief.

If this is real, I wonder which party a two-week ceasefire benefits. I would think Iran, because it allows them to reorder and replenish the missile cities while determining new strategies re: launchers. But maybe it’s better for America, insofar as it staves off economic woes? I have no idea. I also wonder what influence the GCC is exerting, and how this war changes their opinion on US v Iran, if at all.

Israel, because they have a veto over the negotiation, without spending any credibility on the process.

I don't think the US is going to be consulting Israel for much of anything going forward. Trump just agreed to one of the more humiliating cease fires in American history, in part because he got completely snowed by Israel.

And if Israel bombs Iran, what happens?

It depends on how Iran responds. We have the leverage to convince them to stop. Whether Trump uses it is anyone's guess, but I have a hard time believing he'd want a repeat of the last month due to Israel's incontinence.

I have strong doubts that Trump is going to turn on Israel because of Israel killing another IRGC commander or Ayatollah in another surprise attack. This entire adventure is built on the predicate concept that if you get the opportunity, one should spurn negotiations in favor of killing Iranian leadership in surprise attacks, and that if Israel is going to do it then America is per se involved in it.

I think there might be certain limits to this patience, though. Not that Trump cares about anything that happens on the left, but even normally pro-Israel people there are looking askance at this war and at what's gone on in Gaza, there's a wing of the right that's variously anti-war and openly anti-Semitic, and we were just forced to accept humiliating cease fire terms to end a war that many commentators believe that Israel baited us into, and while I'd normally treat such a theory as a hallucination of the militantly anti-Israel crowd, Trump hasn't done much in the way of offering an alternative explanation to suggest that it isn't true. Given the political costs of this adventure, I'd have to imagine that there's a point where Trump runs out of patience. Then again, this is Trump we're talking about, and betting that he'll make terrible decisions is never a losing proposition.

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