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I think this whole analysis is built on false assumptions frankly.
The alternative explanation is that the ten point program listed by the Guardian is not the ten point program Trump was referring to. That instead of almost agreeing to a total Iranian victory, that US negotiators were informed of Iran's willingness to concede on most points. Then instead of needing to invent an explanation for why America seesaws from day to day (I guess Trump just didn't have any goals when he launched this war so he's fine with giving Iran more than what they started with?) -- we can actually be totally reconciled to other facts:
Heck, the Guardian article itself notes that the English version they are describing is different from the Farsi version on the question of nukes, so why are we taking it for granted that it's the Iranian negotiators who are trustworthy? Why are we repeating uncritically claims made by Iranian government officials when they contradict American officials?
People here really don't like when I phrase it this way, but this really is a form of TDS. America is presumed to be acting in all manner of irrational and stupid ways because Trump is the President. Any evidence that America is acting according to some kind of consistent logic or with the consent of its allies has to be explained away or ignored, because we all know that America is irrational because of Trump. Trump accepts Iran's victory one day but not the next day? It can't be the case that reports of Iran's victory and America's surrender were greatly exaggerated. No, it must be the case that Trump got bored.
One interpretation of the Iran War: Trump stupidly launched a bad war, and he didn't have any plans for the war, and the Israelis and Saudis didn't warn Trump because they're scared / selfish, and all reports that the Saudis wanted this war too are fake news, and although we destroyed Iran's military Trump understands that we lost, and he wants us to surrender to Iran ASAP, but JD Vance didn't get that memo because Trump is bored with the war and not paying attention, so now Trump is doubling down to save face, which won't work because everyone in the world knows he's lost!
Another interpretation: America is winning and the idea that we are about to sign a surrender deal to Iran is fake news.
This is just fantasy by the way.
they are acting in all manner of irrational stupid ways.
Firstly they started this war thinking that the Iranian people would rise up and overthrow the regime, which was stupid. Then they go back and forth unsanctioning Iranian oil to lower fuel prices, proposing dual control of the straits, now blockading Iran, threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, then constantly rolling back threats.
It's a pathetic display of weakness and stupidity as some very mediocre intellects thrash around trying to escape a self-inflicted blunder. It's exceeded only by cheerleaders dressing up the flailing as 4D chess.
They started this way saying that the Iranian people would rise up, but how do you know what they think? I think you should accept that the plan is above your pay grade. You’re basically conflating contradictory press statements (a chaos Trump is known to harness) with contradictory purpose.
Does Iran know that? They inaugurated a cardboard cutout as supreme leader the other week btw
The fact that the current plan is to fight to return to the status quo ante suggests that the plan has gone wrong
So America is getting humiliated by a cardboard cutout?
Which predictions would come true if Iran is humiliating the US here? I want to take the opposite bets.
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Your president threatened to destroy the Iranian civilization overnight.
Most people who use language try to transport meaning rather than just fill the silence. Do you think Trump tries to transport meaning with language?
Generally, a threat is only effective if your opponent believes that you are willing to act upon it. If I threaten to cast a fireball at someone, that will weaken my negotiation position because they will assume that I do not have the ability to conjure fireballs. This will increase the probability that any other threat I subsequently make will be likewise idle.
Do you think that Trump was willing to follow through with his threat to end the Iranian civilization? If so, that would make him one of the most evil men in history, and you might as well claim that people in the 1940s had a Hitler Derangement Syndrome.
Or do you think he was bluffing? If so, do you think Iran bought his bluff? Why would they not recognize the bluff when you or I would probably concede that it was unlikely that he was going to nuke Iranian cities? How does the inability of the president to make credible threats help the US, strategically?
In general, what is the purpose of him setting deadlines and making threats on social media? Presumably he has a more direct channel to Iran. Iran certainly seems to be able to conduct their war and negotiate without making dramatic tweets and flip-flopping in public every few days. Is he intentionally trying to come across as unhinged and unreliable? Why?
Or take the Greenland debacle. Trump could have achieved the same outcome, i.e. learning that Denmark is unwilling to sell Greenland to him entirely through diplomatic channels without it ever making the news. What does he get out of it? Is the goal to seem like a buffoon who has no idea how the world works? Or was it net-positive for the purpose of signaling something to his constituents?
I don’t think ending the Iranian civilization (which I take him to mean destroy their energy infrastructure) is more evil than Iranian’s attempt to restrict the global energy infrastructure.
I also think destroying energy infrastructure is relatively commonplace in war and isn’t something particularly heinous. Yes, it would’ve caused significant harm to the Iranian people but that’s war. It is a legit military target which separates it from killing camps.
I truly don't see how you arrived at that interpretation. Why not interpret "ending the Iranian civilization" as ending the Iranian civilization?
Because the president was talking about blowing up their energy stations and bridges. It was context.
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President Trump is going to destroy Iranian civilization? Sounds serious sounds like Iran should surrender.
It is simultaneously the case that:
I think I’m supposed to cower at the subtext here that this would have made Trump “one of the most evil men in history”. I don’t care actually. This is war. Trump is going to destroy Iran if they don’t surrender? Sounds like they should surrender then.
This is honestly the “correct” attitude to have. Trump actually gains power from a hyperventilating body politic that believes he’s gone crazy. Since it works, it’s rational. So I can sit here calmly discussing it without having to condemn it. In order to make madmen theory work some people have to believe that you are mad. But I can also take a step up and look at a strategic view and say “this is correct”.
Every time a politician says Trump has gone mad and we need to stop him he’s really going to do it we can’t stop him he’s mad impeach impeach 25th 25th where’s Vance where’s JD Vance Chuck Schumer we need you oh my God we can’t stop him — well yeah you’re making Trump more powerful. Iran sees that btw. Trump could destroy them tomorrow and nobody is coming to save them. Well, maybe they shouldn’t negotiate I don’t know, maybe they should shake their heads about what is the world coming to, what happened to decency and common sense.
Have you seen Iran’s LEGO Epstein AI rap videos? They’re pretty catchy. What I mean is, this isn’t true at all the Iranians change their demands daily.
Look, in fairness, you’re right we don’t know what backchannels Trump could have used instead or whether he could have talked to Iran / Denmark privately. That’s why I’m not going to quarterback him. There’s obviously a logic at work here and it’s pretty easy to see it, although I want to avoid falling into the trap of plan-trusting when this is more like watching a lion in top shape hunt as his fancy strikes him.
Trump has achieved a lot of amazing successes and I think he’s smarter than me. So it’s correct to sit back and learn something. I think a problem on The Motte is that everyone is used to being the smartest guy in the room and assumes they don’t have much to learn from anybody. I mean this in general although it very obviously applies directly to Trump.
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Yes, because it is the opinion of many in the Trump administration and in the Gulf States that a depopulated Iran is preferable to letting the IRGC have nuclear weapons. "Proportionality" is a courtesy not a moral precept.
The purpose of deploying that threat was to get the Iranians to the negotiation table. Think of it like a police officer shouting "stop or I'll shoot". And you know what, it worked.
Watching the same people who were screaming about the coming genocide a week ago flip to calling Trump a pussy/loser for failing to follow through has been a trip.
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I think most people are just trying to manipulate other people with mouth noises rather than transport meaning.
Yes, but he is also trying to manipulate other people. But the likely meaning can often be teased out with effort; for instance, I was able to predict the actual meaning of his threat to close the Strait.
No. He would have done something, but not anything like that; no advantage in it for him.
It was not bluffing like poker, but chest-beating like primitive primate displays. It appears to have partially worked, getting them to the table but not getting them to yield on key points.
I can't know his inner thoughts, but I would suspect Trump thought (incorrectly) that Denmark would be more willing to sell Greenland if he made it public.
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Exactly. The ten points the Guardian is referring to is almost certainly the one Iran sent last week before the ceasefire, it had to be significantly reworked by multiple parties (Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey) on tuesday to be considered an acceptable starting point for negociation by both parties. So it is not "the same" as Iran's demands. I don't think anyone has published the accepted one, at least not that both sides have confirmed "yes, this is what we agreed on for the ceasefire". So we don't know what it was, so whatever people assume it was is just a confirmation of their prior biases.
Yeah I generally try to refrain from basing my opinions on breaking news or the latest updates, because they're so prone to error or emotion or rumor. So much of it ends up not being true. But if we were to do a full and open blowout of such content, it would imply a much larger world than the simple failures proclaimed by most posters here. Scrolling twitter casually, I see Trump saying the blockade only covers Iranian ships and ports. I see a report that the Iranians might actually concede on nuclear weapons. I see an Iranian minister whining that Trump's blockade violates international law so he shouldn't be allowed to do it. So many potential leads. They would all imply America is winning. And if we are going to accept half news as evidence, we basically have to apply our skepticism entirely in one direction to get the one-sided American Defeat theories I see all day on the Motte.
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