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Notes -
What is the Zionist model of antisemitism*?
Matt Yglesias posted what turned out to be a surprisingly hot take that the downturn in public opinion of Israel is a result of Israeli actions, and that the best way for Israel to fix its public relations problem is to change its actions vis-a-vis the Palestinian issue and foreign policy.
I was surprised at the pushback. This seems straightforwardly true. There was a great chart I saw a few days ago, which I am unfortunately unable to find, which showed that public opinion of Israel has been approximately this low before. It was in 1982 with the invasion of Lebanon and the notoriously brutal siege of Beirut.
Most of the alternative theories fell into two camps.
It’s hard to tell how religious the people in 2. are, but my general impression is, “quite a bit”. Many of them seem to speak of antisemitism as if it were a spiritual fault, another manifestation of the platonic ideal of pure evil. Seen as a spiritual problem, the correct response is to become even more aggressively Jewish. This has the rather large problem of being counterproductive when, e.g. smashing idols goes wrong.
*By “antisemitism” in this post I almost exclusively mean “antizionism”. I use the term to maintain consistency with the pro-Israel literature I am engaging with, not as an endorsement that antizionism = antisemitism.
The inevitable fate of basically every term is to be distorted both as an attack and distorted as a defense. The strategy of both Israel and the actual antisemites has been the same here, to link Israel and the general Jewish population as inherently linked.
Israel links them as a defense to criticism of their actions. The antisemites link them as a way to smear general Jews. But they both do agree, the two are linked.
The Israel strategy actually worked for a short time, just like the woke strategy did. The general US population was generally supportive of Israel! Just like they were generally supportive of some DEI policies. But now views have effectively reversed in the US and antisemitism is growing. The "your criticisms are bigoted" defense only seems to work for a short period, eventually they start speaking up again and some even turn more bigoted in response, especially since the defense is also "the two are linked". Israel after all has told people who have problems with their behavior, that they must also have problems with Jews in general.
Let's go over the two theories you put as well
Then one must ask why is this anti Israel misinformation so much more potent now? It's not as if antisemitic propaganda is a new phenomenon, what has changed to make it more effective? I've shared one of my theories above.
You also gotta appreciate the irony here of "we need more control over information" given the common antisemitic trope of Jews wanting control over information.
So again, why is antisemitism apparently increasing then? It's the same exact question that leftists fail to answer when companies raise their prices due to "greed". If it's such an intrinsic thing, what is the difference between now and then?.
Meanwhile "Israeli actions actually do impact how people view Israel" is a pretty strong explanation for why people change their views. Maybe stuff like letting soldiers who sexually assaulted and abused a prisoner on video get off scot free might actually make people dislike you. Maybe some people who would otherwise support you don't like it when there's video of your soldiers shooting a young boy, standing around not rendering aid, and seemingly framing him by placing a rock near to say he was throwing it.
You've got two classes here: Anti-semites and Israelis, and you note that both of them want to link Israel to the general jewish population.
The general jewish population is also a class, no? What do they want with regard to the connection of Israel and themselves?
Do you, personally, believe that Israel has a right to exist as "a Jewish and Democratic state"?
Do you, personally, believe that a state can in practical terms be both "Jewish" and "Democratic" in the commonly-understood definitions of those terms? That is, assuming the general positive-valence progressive understanding of "Democracy" as a social system, do you think "Democracy" is broadly compatible with an explicit ethno-state?
What are the bounds of discourse? It's pretty clear how much criticism of Israel is acceptable to Israel (little to none) and how much is acceptable to antisemites (almost all to all). I think it's pretty clear that the general jewish population likewise has something like coherent bounds on the amount of criticism of Israel they consider acceptable; are those bounds closer to the Israeli limits or the antisemite limits?
You appear to want to limit this discussion to Israel and the Antisemites, since both of these are your outgroup. But the general jewish population is a cohesive social cluster, and one that is not, to put it delicately, a complete stranger to the organization and exercise of political power. My observation is that the general jewish population is strongly supportive of Israel as a state, as they have been for decades. Criticism of specific actions of Israel or its agents does not change this fact.
I used to be very strongly pro-Israel. I went very strongly anti-Israel when I went blue. Now I am committed to, as best as I am able, no longer having an opinion on the matter either way. If your strategy is otherwise, I wish you the best with dodging the antisemite label yourself, but do not expect your dodging to work. I do not think you or your coalition generally will be able to carve out a stable middle-ground where "antisemite" retains its negative valence and yet effective, consequential criticism builds toward an effective social consensus. I think a major reason this will not happen is because the general Jewish population does not want it to happen, and will organize against you to keep it from happening. When they start calling you a Nazi, know that to at least a minor extent, you have my sympathies, and my hope that the experience is educational for you.
Rights are irrelevant. It is impossible to have a Jewish, democratic state in the territory currently controlled by Israel because that territory contains more Palestinians than non-Haredi Jews, and without a genocide (real or technical) is likely to continue to do so. (And even if a multiethnic democracy with Jewish character was possible, neither Israeli Jews nor Palestinians have any interest in attempting it).
Both the current governing coalition in Israel (led by Netanyahu) and the most popular opposition party (led by Naftali Bennett) claim to be committed to a Jewish state including the vast majority of the West Bank, which implies either permanent apartheid (with the Palestinians continuing to be treated worse than any minority group in any country which expects credit for being a "democracy") or a Final Solution to the Palestinian problem. I don't think either Bennett or Netanyahu or most of their supporters are actually thinking in terms of Final Solutions, but Netanyahu's coalition includes Kahanists who definitely are and Bennett ran on a joint list with them before he adopted big-tent anti-Netanyahu politics.
None of this implies that that the current Israeli government is as evil as Hamas, but when Germany play Argentina in the World Cup you don't have to hold your nose and root for the lesser evil, if you are a good person you can go touch grass, and if you are a bad person you can buy popcorn and root for injuries.
Absolutely, and inside-the-Green-Line Israel was (and still is, in so far as it can be conceived of separately from the West Bank settlements). A democracy whose character reflects the shared culture of the voting majority while acknowledging the rights as individual humans and citizens of members of ethnic minorities is a solved problem. But building that Jewish democracy was only possibly with a supermajority-Jewish population.
It's never, ever, coming home, mate.
In the spirit of this bet, I wonder whether peace will come to the Middle East before England wins a World Cup. But sports fandom isn't supposed to be rational, and I don't bet on England games for that reason. A hundred years of hurt isn't going to stop me dreaming...
For whatever it's worth, I had basically lost all hope by 2022 and "we" then proceeded to win the world cup and then elect a libertarian.
Gotta keep dreaming.
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