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[Yes, it's my monthly post about my hobby horse.]
Perhaps the most recurrent complaint made by the trans activist coalition is that transgender people in Western countries face an elevated risk of violence and murder, and that this increased risk is directly attributable to anti-trans bigotry. The Transgender Day of Remembrance is observed every November 20th, to memorialise those murdered as a result of transphobia. Organisations like Human Rights Watch claim that violence against trans people in the US has reached "epidemic" levels. A Trump-instated genocide of trans people is either claimed to be imminent or already ongoing, albeit in its "early stages" (conveniently). Various US states have passed laws banning defendants from using the "trans panic" defense (i.e. the defendant was so shocked upon discovering that an object of their sexual desire was transgender that they lost control of their faculties) in murder trials, under the historically dubious claim that this defense has resulted in vastly reduced sentences or even outright acquittals. The increased risk of violence and murder that trans people ostensibly face is sometimes used to justify other policy demands made by TRAs (e.g. trans women must be permitted to use ladies' bathrooms, because if they're forced to use the men's room they'll get beaten up).
Gender-criticals like myself routinely push back on these claims, pointing out that one cannot simply attribute every murder of a trans person to transphobia (any more than every murder of a white person can be attributed to anti-white animus): many of the victims touted by Human Rights Campaign were murdered by a close acquaintance or a domestic partner, and in some cases the perpetrator was also trans. Similarly, a disproportionate share of the cited murder victims are usually sex workers, an already at-risk demographic even leaving transgender identity aside. A simple per capita analysis indicates that, in Western countries, trans people face a vastly reduced risk of murder compared to the general population. A major limitation of the per capita approach, however, is uncertainty over both numerator and denominator: it's possible that there are some murder victims whose transgender identity was not made public knowledge, and getting hard data on the absolute number of trans people in a given country is remarkably difficult and dependent on inherently noisy methods like polls and surveys (which become all the noisier if the question is worded in such a way that it's likely to be misinterpreted by a non-native English speaker).
Two academics at the University of Oxford, Michael Biggs and Ace North* (!), have developed a novel method of investigating the claim that trans people face an elevated risk of violence: comparing the ratio of murder victims to murder perpetrators. If the ratio for a particular demographic is greater than 1, murder victims in that demographic outnumber murder perpetrators, and vice versa. If trans people in the UK face an elevated risk of violence, one would expect the ratio of victims to perpetrators to be greater than 1; if their risk of violence has reached "epidemic" levels, one would expect the ratio to be much higher than other demographics (such as female people).
One detail I particularly like is that the researchers sourced their figures for transgender murder victims from a trans activist website, while their figures for transgender murderers were sourced from a gender-critical website, in hopes that the two organisations' respective incentives to make each figure as high as possible would offset each other. To be as generous to the trans activist coalition as possible, the researchers disambiguated murderers who already identified as transgender prior to their arrest and those who only began doing so afterwards. After assembling a dataset of victims and perpetrators, the researchers analysed their respective media coverage in the national broadcaster, the BBC.
What did they find?
Stray thoughts:
*Sounds like the name of an American character in an anime.
How did transgender issues become your hobby horse? Personal interactions with trans people (online or offline), gender issues of your own, workplace politics…? I’m generally curious as to why non-trans people get invested in this when it seems easy to ignore (especially now that it seems to be fading from the culture war issues du jour).
In any case I agree that white Western trans women probably aren’t at an extremely elevated risk of murder and that the trans genocide narrative is overblown, but even in the West, being trans can lead to discrimination, being ostracised by your friends and family, and make you more at risk of low level violence and hate crimes.
I’m not sure that follows. A romantic partner might commit murder because of the shame of being publically outed as being in a relationship with a trans gender person, and honour killings of trans people by their family members do occur. This is more common in cultures that do not accept trans people, which is why victims tend to be non-white or non-western. If transphobia becomes more widespread and accepted, it seems obvious that violence and discrimination will increase as a result.
As a trans woman, I don’t avoid the men’s room because of the risk of violence, but to avoid unnecessary attention and disruption when I’m in a public place. It’s not as dramatic and convincing as saying I need to use the men’s room or I’ll get punched, but eh, I don’t see why I should needlessly inconvenience myself, and a bathroom bill would just make things even worse due to false positives, enforcement issues, etc.
There are a range of answers I could give to this question, some very flattering to me and my worldview, some much less so. The answer that feels most honest is that I have this thing where, when I see people proudly, confidently asserting things I know to be false (especially in a calculating, emotionally manipulative way), I feel this compulsion to push back and say no, that's not true, and I can prove it. Covid brought out the same compulsion in me. Basically this comic.
Another part of it is a sort of Emperor's new clothes/"are you seeing this shit?" effect, where something stands out to me plain as day, but it feels like everyone around me is tiptoeing around it and trying not to Notice™ or draw attention to it.
I commend your honesty.
Yeah but people do this about everything! Covid affected everyone so it’s understandable, but trans people aren’t very common outside of a few specific scenes.
Mostly I’m curious because many gender critical people seem very invested in this issue, certainly more than I am, and it’s hard for me to understand why if you don’t have a personal link to it.
Sometimes I pose to people a hypothetical: how willing would you be to vote for a political party, if in general they align with you quite well, and endorse all your niche little political positions, and seem to be competent and reasonable... but also, they want to redefine pi to be equal to 3.
That's the only problem. They think pi being 3.141 whatever is a bunch of stupid bullshit for nerds who've never had sex, and life would be much easier if it was 3.
It's an interesting hypothetical to pose, because a lot of people (especially left-liberals, in my experience) do see this as a deal-breaker. I don't know if it would be in actual practice, but they realize that they are supposed to say they believe in science and experts and whatever, and vocalizing that they would support a party committed to something so unambiguously, objectively wrong tugs at them the wrong way. Especially because it is a sort of nonsense idea that would never happen in reality (see a lot of the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the red vs blue button debate).
Now, sometimes this is a preamble to me explaining that progressive dogma on trans people sometimes feels like declaring pi to be 3 to me. Or maybe I'm talking to someone more conservative about global warming or vaccines instead. But the point is that it feels very difficult to endorse someone for a leadership position when they are so nakedly willing to stare truth in the eyes and declare it a lie. They are so obviously choosing to preserve the structure of their worldview than admit an uncomfortable truth. That's the kind of thing that can breed the worst kinds of radicalism.
Maybe it irks me to an unreasonable degree, but it seems to me a particularly salient example of this kind of thinking.
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True, but also: no!
@FtttG's description resonated with me a lot (thanks for putting it to words).
I think you (rae) are right that the median person does feel a compulsion to push back on things they think are wrong. But... does the typical pushback on social media look anything like the Motte (in its best, idealised form)? Most popular pushback takes the form "your political bloc is dumb and stupid and evil, here's why".
Everyone (including people like me, and presumably FtttG) probably feels an urge to drop zingers on people who say dumb/evil things, and to push back against our tribal enemies. Call this "Pushback Type 1". PT1 lets us feel smart and good, and signal to our tribe that we are smart and good, and to enjoy the schadenfreude of our enemy getting squished. This is probably a universal thing that people are predisposed to like.
I think the thing FtttG is referring to is distinct. Call it "Pushback Type 2". PT2 is about criticising what we think is false even if (a) it can't be done in a crisp, devastating zinger, (b) it doesn't help some tribe we're aligned with, and (c) we don't get to enjoy having put someone down a peg. It's the obsessiveness of going: "This person is wrong, I don't care if the whole world is behind them; I need to explain why!"
The Motte is fuelled by a proprietary blend of PT2 spiked by PT1 (the exact formula is a closely-guarded secret).
There's still the question of why trans stuff specifically has captured FtttG. Obviously that's not for me to say, but a general explanation would be: people with PT2 inclinations can get sniped by any particular instance of falsehoods; it's a crapshoot.
... but I'd also then say: to me, trans stuff is the quintessential example of people "proudly, confidently asserting things I know to be false". I can't think of a stronger example. It's as ontologically broken as transubstantiation.
(I'm very sympathetic to your position of trans people basically wanting to be left alone, btw.)
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I mean, sure, but lots of people get intensely emotionally invested in issues that have zero practical impact on their lives. I'd hazard a guess that an outright majority of Westerners attending pro-Palestine marches in the last two and a half years have never met a Palestinian or an Israeli, much less been to the region. In absolute terms gender ideology has a minimal impact on my life, but it has a far greater impact on my life than the death of George Floyd had on any given Irish person, which didn't stop hundreds if not thousands of Irish people attending BLM protests at the height of Covid.
I've long felt that "why do you care about this, it doesn't even affect you" is a textbook Russell conjugation. Caring about the people affected by an issue, even if it doesn't affect me personally? I thought we used to call that "empathy".
In my defense, I’d have the same reaction to a westerner with no links to the topic regularly attending pro-Palestine marches or an Irish person attending BLM rallies.
But also, I personally want people to be less interested in trans issues, so it would be in my benefit to have you care less about this.
But your attention is limited and you have to pick your battles, so why this one? Effective altruist types will go by maximum impact/effort and end up donating 10% of their income to shrimp welfare, but most of us generally have to have a reason to care about a specific topic, and I think it’s important to look at why you’re invested in a specific cause.
Like if you’re an Irish person marching for BLM, it’s useful to realise whether you are actually doing it because you care about African Americans, or because it was the trendy thing to do.
Have I got a link for you!
(Seriously, the extent to which our chattering class and wannabe activists have been taken over by
mind flayer larvaeAmerican progressive talking points, you would not believe).I mean, the Irish are the blacks of Europe, and the Dubliners are the blacks of Ireland, so...
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Well, I do donate 10% of my post-tax income to charity, I have done for years, and none of that money has ever gone towards e.g. a think tank trying to combat the intrusion of gender ideology into schools. To the extent that this is my hobby horse, all I mean is that I sometimes discuss it on a pseudonymous internet forum and on my blog. Frankly, I think I have my priorities in order.
I certainly don't think I could be accused of taking on this hobby horse because it's "trendy". If anything I'd say it has more to do with my reflexive contrarian streak. I've been a "well actually" devil's advocate gadfly type for as long as I can remember.
Why?
That’s fine, again it was genuine curiosity, not me trying to discredit you.
In my opinion, the increased attention, both positive and negative, has made things worse for trans people. I don’t want to have trans scissor statements in the media so that woke people can show their support, I don’t want pronouns in bio, I don’t want my medical condition to be in the spotlight and have it become politicised with everyone having to have a take on it. I want people who are indifferent, not allies who go out of their way to make me feel “accepted”.
That's fair. I sincerely apologise if I came off as hostile or defensive.
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