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I’d like to take a moment to discuss the present and future of the Republican Party within the United States, specifically as it pertains to how a post-Maga consensus and organization may emerge.
Following the Afghanistan and Iraq interventions by then president George W. Bush, public sentiment had largely turned against what is colloquially known as the Neo-Cons, largely exacerbated by media outrage and Democratic politicians lambasting said interventions as wastes of time, lives and initiated upon faulty grounds. In spite of both operations being successful in toppling the reigning dictatorial regimes within the respective middle eastern countries, they were predominantly framed as failures both internally within and without. Largely as a result of this antagonism, a countermovement emerged within the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump which sought to subvert not only the Neo-Con interventionist stance, but also the Atlanticist and pro-NATO foreign policy which had dominated the party since the second world war, in favor of an “America First” way of thinking.
The result of his tenure as president, both first and second term combined has largely been to the disappointment of many, even the many hardliners within the party as the man in question proved unable to deliver on his many promises such as bringing manufacturing back to the Rust Belt (of which tariffs could not abate the decay), the end of Free Trade as a means of lowering prices back home (the former is arguably a success, the latter is not), and in ending foreign entanglements (more on this below). The GOP all the same has become almost entirely captivated by his personage, and outside of Trump, there is little consensus among Republican politicians and political theorists as to the path the party ought to follow. What is clear however, is that his rule has largely been to the detriment of the country, especially as it pertains to America’s relationship with its allies in NATO, and as it pertains to its capability to project force abroad.
The recent conflict with Iran underlines this point quite clearly. Unlike the War on Terror, which successfully managed to overthrow tyrannical regimes stoking Islamist sentiment within the region, the American military has failed to effectively incapacitate Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-how-many-nuclear-bombs-b2967811.html), nor has it effectively weakened the regime sufficiently for a popular uprising to topple it. Whether this is solely due to an atrophying of the military industrial complex, the lack of cooperation and involvement with allied countries via NATO, Trump hamstringing the army and navy due to his obsession with “making deals” or any number of other possible explanations (never mind the possibility of it being all of the above), it is quite clear that as of now the USA is in no position to contest the globe with the likes of China or Russia. Only once these industries are revitalized, the military let of its leash and true cooperation established once more within NATO can this problem be resolved, and that’ll require an end to this Maga experiment and Donald Trump’s hold over the party.
A sentiment which has become increasingly prominent over these past few years of Maga influence is the need for a revitalized GOP, capable of once more cooperating across the aisle with their Democratic counterparts for the betterment of America as a whole. Pelosi echoed this sentiment in 2024 (https://www.npr.org/2024/08/07/nx-s1-5058779/pelosi-says-we-need-a-strong-gop-and-that-this-one-is-a-cult-to-a-thug), noting the significant differences between prior Republican leaders and Trump, as well as the need for “a strong GOP”. Obama has similarly noted the need for a post Trump consensus last week (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/barack-obama-worried-democrats-republicans-gobbledygook_n_69fb66d0e4b0cb033e4de37a), which will require a rehabilitation of some sort for the past of the GOP, one which can only begin once we look past populist politics. Hasan, perhaps unsurprisingly in response to Obama’s words, said he wanted “no Republican party”, which is perhaps indicative of the conflicting interests between the two groups.
This goal of a strong GOP, as stated, will require a reexamination of past Republican politicians and presidents, and a more generous way of assessing their successes and failures. This work however has already begun, and was most notable during the campaign of Kamala Harris. Her campaigning with Liz Cheney, the fact that Dick Cheney prior to his death voted for her (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/dick-cheney-kamala-harris-liz-cheney-rcna169979), and Liz’s attempt at getting George W. Bush to endorse Harris (https://www.thedailybeast.com/liz-cheney-tells-george-w-bush-to-endorse-kamala-harris-its-time/) shows that there is a significant desire among the moderates of the GOP to escape the influence of Magaist politics. Naturally, how exactly this transformation of the party will take place after Trump leaves the White House is purely speculative, and doubtless there’ll be those who'll seek to emulate his success. However, I believe there is sufficient reason to assert that broad, consensus-based politics will once more emerge within America, which’ll hopefully initiate a process of rebuilding for the damages the last decade of Trumpist politics have inflicted on the nation.
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...I don't think it is 'quite clear' and the case laid out here just takes it for granted.
I'm sorry was there not a whole thing where Russian and Chinese anti-air completely failed to pose a real threat in Venezuela and later in Iran?
Did I hallucinate a whole news story about an incursion into Venezuela without even needing to perform a significant amount of bombing? Last I checked Maduro is still in prison in New York.
Was that not a notable development that suggests that U.S. air superiority is even more lopsided than might have been assumed?
I'm actually asking for a chain of reasoning to explain how you came out of the last 5 months with a higher estimate of Russian and Chinese military efficacy compared to the U.S. than previously. This viewpoint befuddles me.
I don't know what your precise definition of "contest the globe" is but holy cow, if nukes were off the table, how exactly do those countries even show up for the competition, let alone win it convincingly. What exactly is the edge you're giving to them that will outperform demonstrated U.S. capabilities, before discussing the stuff that is as-yet undemonstrated.
Find it annoying to see these posts that basically affirming the consequent by bolstering a given conclusion they've reached (the U.S. failed to completely demolish Iran's nuclear program) then pretending their premise (U.S. military might capacity is hamstrung under Donald Trump) without a supporting scaffold of logic. We're barely two years into Trump two, after four years of whatever the hell Biden was, and making bold prognostications about his efforts being failures kind of belies the results we've seen overall.
Can't help but notice some motivated reasoning there, bub. Especially because there's that glaring interruption in "the last decade" of Trumpist politics that goes utterly glossed over.
Curious to mention Kamala in your post but I do a ctrl+f "Biden" and its empty. Howboutdat.
Anyway, sorry to sound flippant, but it really helps that when you're trying to advance a particular conclusion, you actually back up the premises you're using that are the most controversial or extraordinary, such as "a decade of damages" from Trumpist politics (damage inflicted where? of what magnitude?), or "...that his rule has largely been to the detriment of... America’s relationship with its allies in NATO" (As compared to before? What precisely has deteriorated?).
Anyhow:
Rubio or Vance remain the favorites for winning the 2028 Presidential election Much can change in between, but the assumption that there isn't a viable path forward that actually preserves much of the Trump coalition seems wishful, there's likely a power struggle to come, but all those Trump-backed challengers just blew out a bunch of incumbents in Indiana, so it seems pretty clear where the center of gravity within the GOP lies right now.
Oh, also, on the manufacturing front. Upward momentum after decades of decline... suggests something has changed or improved. Yes, that includes the Rust Belt.
I dunno, this analysis seems to be a little undercooked.
Taking it by candidate and not by party which has a 60:40 leaning towards Dems is a mistake. The issue here is that Rubio and Vance are considered significantly more likely to be the Republican nominee (64% collectively) than Newsom and Harris (the top two Dem choices at this moment) are expected to be the Dem nominee. (33% chance collectively).
Basically the markets are expecting a Obama/Trump style moment where someone unexpectedly comes in and wins the Dem primary and then goes onto winning the presidency.
I think I take your meaning, but allow me to try and parse this:
The markets expect that the unexpected will happen. I guess its just a wait and see thing, account for the uncertainty.
And as much as Obama provides good precedent, I think the subsequent years where Hillary and then Biden locked down the nom against upstarts (including Bernie... twice) makes it less likely.
Yeah. They don't really have an idea who it will be, but Harris and Newsom combined are only 33%. Add AOC and it's 41%.
So basically, it's more likely to be none of the top three candidates than it is to be any of them right now.
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Generic Dems always outperform real Dems. People tend to imagine a nice Leslie Knope and then flinch at the inevitable Jean Ralphio.
That we don't know who the specific real Dem will be in 2028 doesn't change that there will be a specific real Dem in 2028, and thus the polling effect of "Generic Dem vs Generic Republican" doesn't really impact the predictions. They're not predicting generic Dem, they're predicting currently unknown specific Dem who will be dealing with specific Dem issues.
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