What is the deal with these people who are super-successful offline (e.g. Chamath, Marc Andreessen, Elon Musk), but on social media have such mediocre, cringe, or bad opinions, getting easily-verifiable facts wrong or just repeating sale or boring stuff, or digging in when wrong? Why is there such a large disconnect between being so successful in one domain (e.g. creating companies) and the ability to produce good, well-informed opinions online?
My answer: People who are really successful offline tend to be specialists--they find something that works, and then scale or repeat it. People who have "good opinions about a broad range of topics" are generalists, but this does not necesailty lead to large wealth, which typically requires specialization.
Generalists tend to be higher IQ and get bored more easily, seeking novelty, but this comes at the cost mastery at a skill to become wealthy. Becoming a billionaire at running restaurants means knowing everything about the restaurant industry--perhaps not exactly intellectually simulating work--but necessary for success. Specialists can be really smart, but I would say generalists are smarter in the aggregate. There is no "industry person" who is as broadly read about history and other humanists topics as Moldbug, for example, as the ultimate generalist.
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The answer: because it's fun.
Empirically, shitposting is proven to be one of life's great joys. The richest man in the world and the most powerful man in the world have both purchased their own social media networks specifically to feed their massive shitposting habit. Kevin Durant is an all time great basketball player, the night after the USA beat Serbia he was an olympic medalist, immensely rich, in Paris with thousands of other super hot athletes, and what did he choose to do that night, exhausted from his effort on the floor? Shitpost on Twitter.
People who can do anything they want still choose shitposting on twitter all night.
Having half-informed opinions about things is one of the great joys of life. Whether you're in a dive bar in Reading, PA; you're a weirdo autist on themotte, or you're on your iphone on your private jet.
I think this applies to Elon Musk. He doesn't seem to take himself too seriously online. He posts memes and doesn't factcheck. It's a "take it or leave it approach". For Marc Andreessen or Chamath, it's harder to tell, and I think they are more serious, so their misfires reflect a combination of poor situational awareness or opinions that poorly calibrated for their audiences. The fact they defend themselves or double-down suggests it's not trolling, but rather their genuine belief, whereas Elon doesn't explain.
distinction without a difference. Having strong half-informed opinions and arguing about them is fun.
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