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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   327 thread views

Transnational Thursday for May 14, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Just kicking off this thread to see what people think will come out of the Xi/Trump meeting.

  1. would China help US out regarding Iran? (Opportunity for China to look bigger and more powerful than the US)
  2. How many deals will be announced? How many of them after closer inspection will be smaller than what was announced? (Soybeans for example)
  3. Would there be any discussions of human rights? (I heard about Jimmy Lai twice from WSJ and The Dispatch? lately)
  4. Would Trump change US position on Taiwan? (from "the US support One China and support the people of Taiwan's democratic rights for self-determination" to "the US opposes Taiwan's independence")
  5. Any surprise / dark horse bet that no one is talking about?
  1. No. Never interrupt your opponent when they are making a mistake. The conventional wisdom is that Iran was is a mistake. No need to believe that Xi advisors are of different opinion.
  2. Probably some AI safety pact that makes sure that only China and USA have advanced AI.
  3. Absolutely no. China is not infringing the rights on people that someone gives a fuck about.
  4. How can you change something that doesn't exists. The US is in strategic ambiguity for so long that I am not convinced that coherent position even exists.
  5. Nope.
  1. I think "we will help Taiwan militarily in case of China invasion, if they don't declare independence but we will not if they do" is coherent enough.

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