Historian Daniel Larison unpacks this in his recent piece on his substack Eunomia, about how we are living through a time of persistent “threat inflation.”
In military metrics, US is plummeting next to China. It's always on the verge of default, with a yearly debt ceiling dance, its military can't found enough people willing to serve.
American yearly drug overdose deaths each outstrip the best efforts of Russian army in Ukraine by a factor of 4 if you believe Ukrainian government numbers.
It's a high speed national decline, masked only by the enormous amount of ruin that needs to be accomplished.
In addition to actual spy balloons (of which there are some) it does look like NORAD also shot down at least one hobbyist radio balloon that cost <$300 to send out, which were registered with the FAA and whose owners tried in vain to contact the proper authorities.
If that's not decline - a nation's air force not being able to check what has been reported to them by civilian authorities, and not being able to verify what it's shooting at despite the existence of optic pods (telescopes,. basically).. then what is 'decline' ?
In military metrics, US is plummeting next to China. It's always on the verge of default, with a yearly debt ceiling dance, its military can't found enough people willing to serve.
This conflates multiple different issues, none of which are applicable to a military metric comparison. The American 'default' is based around political willingness to raise debt ceilings and assume new debt, not a financial ability to afford new debt (or, on established history, willingness to asssum more). Nor is the US military recruitment issue a particularly relevant comparison when (a) China is a conscription model, and (b) the result of American military retention issues will be... the downscaling over expeditionary commitments, which China doesn't have equivalent to.
This is an apples to oranges comparison on multiple levels, without even addressing what amount of strategic orientation of the US 'should' be. If the argument is that the US is in decline because it will have to pare back overseas efforts, that does not even imply a relative decline if it's still orders of magnitude more than what China engages in.
American yearly drug overdose deaths each outstrip the best efforts of Russian army in Ukraine by a factor of 4 if you believe Ukrainian government numbers.
Factual accuracy aside, is this supposed to surprise or alarm to anyone who's familiar with the scale of the US population compared to the Russian military in Ukraine?
In 2020, for example, the number of estimated US drug deaths rounds up at two significant figures to 69,000*, out of a population rounding to 330,000,000. This is compared to an estimated 40,000 killed across all Russian forces in the 2022 (including the annexed territories and Wagner), of a military whose size size estimate in 2020 of 1,150,000 active service members.
This is over two magnitudes more intense for the Russian casualties compared to their 'normal' army compared to the US. This is also unsurprising- the US population is demographically large- the Russian military is only large in comparison to other national militaries. A population pool over three hundred times the size is going to have a number of much higher statistics in absolute terms that are still much lower in relative terms. Conflating absolute numbers without respect to context is statistical illiteracy.
Moreover, this is again an apples or oranges comparison, since a more relevant metric in trying to do a social comparison would of course be Russian drug deaths. This does admittedly come with its own difficulties of comparing like to like metrics- what is factored into drug deaths has a number of counfounders (such as the drugs of choice) and category differences across countries as well as the integrity of statistics. But if you want to pick one category- say alcohol- then you might have a like-to-like comparison, in which Russia had over 50,000 alcohol-related deaths in 2020 compared to the US which reported 52,000... despite Russia having less than half the total population.
In addition to actual spy balloons (of which there are some) it does look like NORAD also shot down at least one hobbyist radio balloon that cost <$300 to send out, which were registered with the FAA and whose owners tried in vain to contact the proper authorities.
If that's not decline - a nation's air force not being able to check what has been reported to them by civilian authorities, and not being able to verify what it's shooting at despite the existence of optic pods (telescopes,. basically).. then what is 'decline' ?
Not much, apparently, or else far more significant issues than you raise.
not a financial ability to afford new debt (or, on established history, willingness to asssum more).
US has been monetising its debt heavily during the covid era, with now about a fifth of US debt having been purchased with nonexisting money, that is, the federal reserve created the money for that purpose. US spends about double its GDP % of defense, yet the Navy is still worried Chinese military shipbuilding is outpacing the US. The only consolation is China doesn't have that many carriers or nuclear submarines, but why would they need them ? They most likely have a weapon that denies the US use of its carriers within ~3000 km of China.
If the argument is that the US is in decline because it will have to pare back overseas efforts, that does not even imply a relative decline if it's still orders of magnitude more than what China engages in.
Chinese will likely never be stupid enough to repeat American mistakes in belligerence, or crap up 3/4 of the world with their bases. They seem strictly strategically minded and their bases are almost exclusively found around important east hemisphere naval trade routes.
Nor is the US military recruitment issue a particularly relevant comparison when (a) China is a conscription model,
Only technically. It's a volunteer force in practice, so no different from the US.
But if you want to pick one category- say alcohol- then you might have a like-to-like comparison, in which Russia had over 50,000 alcohol-related deaths in 2020 compared to the US which reported 52,000... despite Russia having less than half the total population.
I doubt by this time Russia has a higher per capita mortality from drugs legal and illegal than the US on these metrics, even allowing for difference in what counts.
US is completely anomalous, with its overdose deaths being 20-25x higher per capita than in the EU thanks mostly to the fentanyl.
US has been monetising its debt heavily during the covid era, with now about a fifth of US debt having been purchased with nonexisting money, that is, the federal reserve created the money for that purpose. US spends about double its GDP % of defense, yet the Navy is still worried Chinese military shipbuilding is outpacing the US. The only consolation is China doesn't have that many carriers or nuclear submarines, but why would they need them ? They most likely have a weapon that denies the US use of its carriers within ~3000 km of China.
This is indeed a new argument, but it is also still not the argument you started with. The American debates about default remain congressional politics, not the ability to service.
Chinese will likely never be stupid enough to repeat American mistakes in belligerence, or crap up 3/4 of the world with their bases. They seem strictly strategically minded and their bases are almost exclusively found around important east hemisphere naval trade routes.
Then congratulations- the US recruitment issues, by forcing an abandonment of unproductive bases, will improve their effeciency and effectiveness rather than expending manpower and resources on 'crap' bases.
This is an improvement of the US position, not a weakneing.
Nor is the US military recruitment issue a particularly relevant comparison when (a) China is a conscription model,
Only technically. It's a volunteer force in practice, so no different from the US.
Not quite.
The US had at least 100,000 death due to non-alcohol drug overdoses in 2021, up 29% from the year before.
I doubt by this time Russia has a higher per capita mortality from drugs legal and illegal than the US on these metrics, even allowing for difference in what counts.
US is completely anomalous, with its overdose deaths being 20-25x higher per capita than in the EU thanks mostly to the fentanyl.
And yet your argument wasn't a comparison to the EU, or even relative drug dose deaths compared to Russia which you have not explored in like-to-like- it was a comparison to the Russian war in Ukraine, which remains magnitudes off.
Then congratulations- the US recruitment issues, by forcing an abandonment of unproductive bases, will improve their effeciency and effectiveness rather than expending manpower and resources on 'crap' bases.
Not going to happen unless US is defeated in a major war and loses influence.
According to the Ukraine government, they've only lost cca 000 dead last year or so. That means per capita, casualties of the Russian war against Ukraine are lower
Ukraine, which remains magnitudes off.
Not really. According to UA government, their dead last year were only cca 35000 or so. US is about 8x larger, so per capita losses to illegal drugs in the US are only 2x lower or so..
Bernd
Fighting algorithmic racism like John Henry
Dean 1yr ago
It's hard to keep track when figures are changing that fast. 69k passes any pre-2020 sanity check.
Thanks for promoting me to look it up: I'd had no idea heroin deaths were actually down and crack is coming back, since we only hear about opioids now.
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Notes -
In military metrics, US is plummeting next to China. It's always on the verge of default, with a yearly debt ceiling dance, its military can't found enough people willing to serve.
American yearly drug overdose deaths each outstrip the best efforts of Russian army in Ukraine by a factor of 4 if you believe Ukrainian government numbers.
It's a high speed national decline, masked only by the enormous amount of ruin that needs to be accomplished.
In addition to actual spy balloons (of which there are some) it does look like NORAD also shot down at least one hobbyist radio balloon that cost <$300 to send out, which were registered with the FAA and whose owners tried in vain to contact the proper authorities.
If that's not decline - a nation's air force not being able to check what has been reported to them by civilian authorities, and not being able to verify what it's shooting at despite the existence of optic pods (telescopes,. basically).. then what is 'decline' ?
This conflates multiple different issues, none of which are applicable to a military metric comparison. The American 'default' is based around political willingness to raise debt ceilings and assume new debt, not a financial ability to afford new debt (or, on established history, willingness to asssum more). Nor is the US military recruitment issue a particularly relevant comparison when (a) China is a conscription model, and (b) the result of American military retention issues will be... the downscaling over expeditionary commitments, which China doesn't have equivalent to.
This is an apples to oranges comparison on multiple levels, without even addressing what amount of strategic orientation of the US 'should' be. If the argument is that the US is in decline because it will have to pare back overseas efforts, that does not even imply a relative decline if it's still orders of magnitude more than what China engages in.
Factual accuracy aside, is this supposed to surprise or alarm to anyone who's familiar with the scale of the US population compared to the Russian military in Ukraine?
In 2020, for example, the number of estimated US drug deaths rounds up at two significant figures to 69,000*, out of a population rounding to 330,000,000. This is compared to an estimated 40,000 killed across all Russian forces in the 2022 (including the annexed territories and Wagner), of a military whose size size estimate in 2020 of 1,150,000 active service members.
**Edit- picked the wrong numbers of drug deaths. Error doesn't change the magnitudes. https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates
This is over two magnitudes more intense for the Russian casualties compared to their 'normal' army compared to the US. This is also unsurprising- the US population is demographically large- the Russian military is only large in comparison to other national militaries. A population pool over three hundred times the size is going to have a number of much higher statistics in absolute terms that are still much lower in relative terms. Conflating absolute numbers without respect to context is statistical illiteracy.
Moreover, this is again an apples or oranges comparison, since a more relevant metric in trying to do a social comparison would of course be Russian drug deaths. This does admittedly come with its own difficulties of comparing like to like metrics- what is factored into drug deaths has a number of counfounders (such as the drugs of choice) and category differences across countries as well as the integrity of statistics. But if you want to pick one category- say alcohol- then you might have a like-to-like comparison, in which Russia had over 50,000 alcohol-related deaths in 2020 compared to the US which reported 52,000... despite Russia having less than half the total population.
Not much, apparently, or else far more significant issues than you raise.
US has been monetising its debt heavily during the covid era, with now about a fifth of US debt having been purchased with nonexisting money, that is, the federal reserve created the money for that purpose. US spends about double its GDP % of defense, yet the Navy is still worried Chinese military shipbuilding is outpacing the US. The only consolation is China doesn't have that many carriers or nuclear submarines, but why would they need them ? They most likely have a weapon that denies the US use of its carriers within ~3000 km of China.
Chinese will likely never be stupid enough to repeat American mistakes in belligerence, or crap up 3/4 of the world with their bases. They seem strictly strategically minded and their bases are almost exclusively found around important east hemisphere naval trade routes.
Only technically. It's a volunteer force in practice, so no different from the US.
The US had at least 100,000 death due to non-alcohol drug overdoses in 2021, up 29% from the year before.
According to CDC there were 140k alcohol related deaths..
I doubt by this time Russia has a higher per capita mortality from drugs legal and illegal than the US on these metrics, even allowing for difference in what counts.
US is completely anomalous, with its overdose deaths being 20-25x higher per capita than in the EU thanks mostly to the fentanyl.
This is indeed a new argument, but it is also still not the argument you started with. The American debates about default remain congressional politics, not the ability to service.
Then congratulations- the US recruitment issues, by forcing an abandonment of unproductive bases, will improve their effeciency and effectiveness rather than expending manpower and resources on 'crap' bases.
This is an improvement of the US position, not a weakneing.
Not quite.
And yet your argument wasn't a comparison to the EU, or even relative drug dose deaths compared to Russia which you have not explored in like-to-like- it was a comparison to the Russian war in Ukraine, which remains magnitudes off.
Not going to happen unless US is defeated in a major war and loses influence.
According to the Ukraine government, they've only lost cca 000 dead last year or so. That means per capita, casualties of the Russian war against Ukraine are lower
Not really. According to UA government, their dead last year were only cca 35000 or so. US is about 8x larger, so per capita losses to illegal drugs in the US are only 2x lower or so..
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In 2021 there were 107,000 drug overdose deaths in the united states https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates
In 2020 it was 92,000. Your number of 69,000 is only a thousandish off of 2018's total of 70,630, so maybe it was an early estimate from then?
That's a 55% increase over your figure, and also a 52% increase in drug overdose deaths in only 5 years.
Edit: ah, maybe you were looking at just the fentanyl deaths, which by themselves were about 69,000 in 2020. They were up to 80,000 the next year.
I do indeed appear to have mis-read the context and caveat. Thank you for the correction.
It's hard to keep track when figures are changing that fast. 69k passes any pre-2020 sanity check.
Thanks for promoting me to look it up: I'd had no idea heroin deaths were actually down and crack is coming back, since we only hear about opioids now.
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