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Not some civilian infra, it would need to be nearly all of it. Full shutdown of roads, industry, oil, etc. Any building that makes other things. If production is mixed into residential then the residential has to be hit too to hit the production.
This would of course be a genocide but if nobody can move an inch without being cluster bombed with artillery surely Iran would collapse if only to starvation and looting. The strait would probably be open in this case.
Trump hesitates because he fears the inevitable war crimes tribunal this would cause from democrats. He is not confident republicans can hold the executive for the remainder of his lifespan, or that some other republican president would throw him under the bus in an act of bipartisan goodwill.
Why? Has everybody forgotten that partisan / guerrilla warfare exists?
Partisans can exist only within a living civilian population. Guerrillas can't exist for very long without civilian support.
There are plenty of examples of guerrillas fighting for decades without much or any real civilian support.
The latin and african guerrillas finance themselves without civilian support through the drug trade. I doubt Shia guerrillas representing the last bastion of Iranian revolutionary struggle would debase themselves to that level, unless they wanted to lose significant legitimacy in the islamic world.
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Sure they can. You can stockpile supplies that will last you months, or even years, very easily.
Decentralized cells of IRGC units could certainly survive and threaten the strait. I believe most could be convinced to surrender by remaining IRGC leadership if Tehran and other major cities are flattened by fuel-air bombs, cluster munitions, or whatever the modern equivalent is. Perhaps Trump also shares your doubts about a civilian infra-bombing escalation. To me though, it might be his only way out of the mess.
I want to clarify that I was totally against starting any military conflict with Iran to begin with. However, now that direct hostilities have started, we have to decisively finish any conflict with countries whose official slogan is "Death to America", or we will be leaving yet another problem for future generations to clean up.
…if your problem is with the slogan, then why oppose starting the conflict? Their slogan didn't change, though I suppose they now chant it with more sincerity.
Timing is everything in war, politics, and more. Just because you have an intractable enemy, it doesn't mean you should cast other priorities aside to immediately eliminate them. Trump started the war because he was convinced by Netanyahu that it was an excellent time to defeat Iran. Clearly, it wasn't.
Trump, the US, and possibly the entire oil-importing world now suffer the consequences of a poorly timed decapitation strike aimed at the IRGC. While Iran should have been dealt with eventually, the US could have waited for a more opportune moment, like a contested transition of leadership for example. It's clear that the US had already waited for a long time, but the status quo was tolerable and there was no immediate threat to US interests from Iran.
The country who benefited the most from this war's timing was Israel, who could use the US as a beat stick against Iran while they still had bipartisan pro-Israel support in US congress. Israel's support among younger republicans and the democrat base is fading, so this war is perfect for them while they can still count on the US military to soften up Iran.
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You could easily do that. Just withdraw unilaterally. Of course that would require the US to stop being a client state of Israel.
Well, the US is a client state to Israel, which is why unilateral withdrawal is impossible. Hence Trump's dilemma with Iran and the strait, and the likely need for bombing warcrimes to obliterate Iran to get himself out of a losing war.
What happens if Trump commits bombing warcrimes, they're ineffective and Iran returns the favor against the Gulf? Iran is a huge country that would take quite a bit of effort to actually depopulate whereas the Gulf is entirely reliant on a handful of desalination plants. Such an exchange could easily wind up going worse for America's allies than Iran. At that point what do you do, nuke Tehran to reestablish deterrence?
It seems like the reason the US is in this mess is because it keeps doubling down, losing, and winding up in an even more humiliating position than before.
The risk of ineffective warcrimes to induce a favorable peace is probably what keeps Hegseth and Trump from ordering them done. I see no alternative for them unless they are willing to send ground troops Iraq-style, though.
A unilateral withdrawal would save many lives, but it would be politically fatal to Trump.
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