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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   12468 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 15, 2026

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The full text of the memorandum has been released and confirmed by the White House:

If this is signed as written on Friday, I predict major ructions in the GOP, particularly the Senate, which were already coming to a head before this.

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have jointly agreed, in good faith, on ……… 2026, at…………………, on the following:

  1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

  2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

  3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

  4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal.

  5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

  6. The United States of America undertakes, with regional partners, to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final Deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

  7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final Deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

  8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA. The two Parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment, and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final Deal. The final Deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

  9. Pending the final Deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo; the Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

  10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

  11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully useable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

  12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final Deal.

  13. After signing this MoU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

  14. The final Deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

My take is that probably the "final deal" is a total pipe dream and isn't happening. Of course that also means the 300B isn't happening either. So we're going to get the initial items from the mou, then negotiations will fall apart later this year. Sanctions waivers will expire, funds will get refrozen, and we'll end up right back where we started. Iran will have some of its sanctioned money back, and also has a bunch of its stuff blown up. It'll definitely be up in the air whether they're ahead or behind after this.

The tolls issue seems to be pretty much in line with what my previous take was. They're going to "conduct a dialogue" which realistically is going to go absolutely nowhere but they can make a spin that totally everyone else is definitely going to agree to tolling.

In the medium to long term, UAE and Saudi Arabia (and Iraq) are going to double, triple, and quadruple down on pipelines and air defense (probably made in USA models but who knows) meaning that even though Iran was able to get serious leverage this time, they'll have far less 5 years down the road when Israel wants to start shit again.

What was Trump going to do? Iran was blocking 13 million barrels of oil a day and it is clear that they could hold out for a long time. Iran has 93 million people, is energy self sufficient and has an economic policy centred around self sufficiency. The oil price shot up and with it came inflation. The price stayed at acceptable levels due to the vast amount of oil in reserves and in the system. However, as that started to run dry the economic fallout would have been disastrous.

If Trump tries to weasel his way out of this Iran can shut down the straight.

As for Iranian long term strategy Russia is building several thousand long term drones a month. If Iran builds 500 a month they will have 60 000 in 10 years. That is enough to wreck the gulf state and their oil infrastructure. Especially combined with a missile stockpile several times what they had going into this war.

Yeah. First of all, Iran isn't going to stop supporting Hezbollah, Hezbollah isn't going to stop attacking Israel, and Israel isn't going to stop bombing Lebanon nor withdraw to pre-war borders. This probably won't stop negotiations though. Second, there's a good chance the IRGC refuses to stop shooting at ships in the Strait and the Persian Gulf. Third, even if they do, Iran, thinking they've won, is never going to agree to a plan of action that will actually mean they lose their nuclear material. If the IRGC doesn't spoil the deal early on, I expect negotiations will drag, get extended once or twice, and then a fully lame-duck Trump will have freedom of action. I don't know what he'll do though.

I wonder how close Israel is to destroying Hezbollah completely. It'd be a shame if they had to stop when they'd almost got rid of them.

I expect there's an inexhaustable supply from Israel's perspective. Even if they killed every Shi'ite in Lebanon, Iran has plenty more fighters to send in.

Not close at all

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