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Notes -
BBC Reporting
Breaking As Donald Trump has been speaking, senior US officials have been briefing reporters about the deal with Iran.
The BBC was part of that meeting. Here are some key points from the 14-paragraph agreement:
Fighting ends - Lebanon included: The deal declares the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon"
Final deal in 60 days: "The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent"
US naval blockade ends: The US will remove its naval blockade of Iran within 30 days. "During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran". Also, the US "further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal"
Strait of Hormuz reopens: The key waterway will remain toll-free for 60 days, and then, a senior official says, "Iran will work not just with Oman but with the Gulf states to set up a broader agreement, a longer term agreement on the Strait of Hormuz"
$300bn for Iran development: The US undertakes with regional partners to develop a fund of at least $300bn (£224bn) "for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran"
All sanctions lifted: The US "undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran", with a schedule to be agreed
No nuclear weapon for Iran: The US and Iran agree that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and they will work together on removing Iran's enriched nuclear material through "blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA"
[End Quote]
I should note for anyone that wants to dispute this, I first saw the breaking report on CNBC who said only that the version they were read basically resembled the previous "leaked" reporting except that there was a specification that the enriched material would be disposed of, at minimum by dilution under supervision within Iran.
So, this seems to be it, unless there's secret clauses more favorable to the USA or you think the State Department lied to reporters.
The original American goals for the war were, as I recall and I don't mean to call anyone out so I'm not hunting for citations to arguments from months ago, correct me if I'm missing any:
-- Regime Change: Nowhere close. Very, very conditional surrender. Probably further away than ever, though I think sanctions relief probably weakens the regime rather than strengthens it.
-- Forcing Iran to Abandon Proxies: Actually significantly worse off than before the war, as the agreement essentially requires and legitimizes the idea that Hezbollah is an area of interest and control for Iran. Iran is allowed to ask for this unrelated conflict to stop, and they're expected to control Hezbollah to prevent recurrence.
-- Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program: It does seem that the HEU will be neutralized, so chalk up a win here, but it's unclear how the overall nuclear program will be impacted. Iran does not seem to be giving up its right to enrich uranium. The vow to not build a nuclear weapon isn't worth a bucket of warm spit, and at any rate they had already made the same statement publicly on multiple occasions.
In addition to whatever the overall costs of the war are, fiscal and moral, Iran is coming out of this getting:
-- Complete sanctions relief. Iran is already getting waivers to sell oil through the blockade immediately, and will receive complete sanctions relief. I expected most of this, more or less, when the first peace proposals were released by each side and you could see the middle ground forming. But complete sanctions relief? That's unbelievable. I think it's a good thing for America to do sanctions never succeed in regime change in third world countries they only have any impact inasmuch as the people targeted think of themselves as first worlders. Maybe this won't happen, the USA is framing it as pay-for-performance on Iran's obligations, but it's crazy this is even on the table.
-- $300bn in reconstruction financing. The fund will likely be structured in such a way that Trump can claim no US taxpayer dollars went into it, or consist of loans such that it's not "giving" Iran $300bn dollars, or be restricted in how it's spent so that it can be framed as humanitarian aid, but let's be honest amongst ourselves: Iran is getting $300bn in reparations out of this. We're paying Iran to stop the war, or at best we are pressuring the Gulf States to do so.
-- Protection for Hezbollah and a recognition of Iran's role as their patron internationally.
The Strait talk is still in the air, some reporting makes it seem like the strait will be toll-free for 60 days, indicating it may not be toll-free afterward. Other sources indicate that it must be toll-free forever. We'll have to see. Personally I suspect there will be a small "environmental impact fee" assessed on every oil tanker passing through the strait, and both sides will claim victory.
So, like, by the terms set at the start, it doesn't seem that the United States achieved most of its objectives. Maybe the nuclear issue will be achieved in some way, but the program itself has not been dismantled unless, as JD has said on The View, you like the new Iranians better than the old Iranians.
For what it's worth, I think it's good policy today to sign the deal. I even think the overall terms of the deal can be a net victory for the United States.
When you're in a hole, stop digging. There was almost no chance of achieving any of those objectives through the course of the war by continuing the bombings. Trump is now saying, publicly, that within a few weeks the oil reserves were going to run out and everything was going to go haywire economically.
And removal of sanctions is a Good Thing full stop. Sanctions do not work to change regimes, they work to punish populations. We can ruin some French Judge's life for ruling against Israel, but we can't force Putin to leave Ukraine and we can't remove the Ayatollahs. Make Iran rich, tie it into the global economy, and they have something to lose in a future conflict.
I would dispute even "conditional surrender", at least as far as the Iranian side is concerned. It is (or will or would be) a negotiated peace. Both sides make some concessions, so both sides have some points they can try to sell as victory.
By points, Iran has won rather clearly.
The regime survived and is likely strengthened. The US and Israel dropping bombs on Iranians is worth more propaganda-wise than what a thousand propagandists could accomplish in a decade.
Iran has established that it does control the strait of Hormuz and thus can squeeze the balls of the world economy whenever they feel like it.
Iran has also set a precedent that attacking them is, if not a presidency-ending mistake, at least a serious blunder which will cost the president a lot of support.
Iran was not in an enviable situation. The US and Israel had a technological advantage on a scale that it was not even funny and could bomb them at will for months. But the US did not achieve any strategic goals from these tactical victories.
Personally, I abhor war, and I do not consider Trump's and Netanyahu's war even remotely justified. So I celebrate not only the end of the conflict but also the fact that the warmongers had to retreat with their tail between their legs.
Compared to a continuation of the war? Sure. Let me try a metaphor. If I were to find myself in a firefight with multiple cops, the best strategy would probably be to throw away my gun and announce my surrender. It would satisfy my preferences better to get charged with assault than to be a corpse full of lead. Still, calling it a "victory" would be a bit of a stretch. Taking a step back, I should probably ask myself what life decisions I took prior to that which lead me to the situation, and re-evaluate them with the benefit of hindsight. Like "why the fuck did I think picking a gunfight with the police was a good idea?"
Iran did not pick this war, Trump did. His deal will be compared to Obama's deal, and it will be found wanting even before taking into consideration all the expenses in materiel and lives to set the table for it.
I am fine with sanctions against Putin (at least since 2022), at least to the degree that it is a voluntary decision by countries not to buy certain resources from the sanctioned party -- obviously Putin should still be free to sell his oil to Cuba, if they want it. A good chunk of the Russian economy is used to support his war of aggression, and it can be more effective to deny him hard funds than to continue to do business with him and buying more weapon systems for Ukraine to counter the effect of his additional funds. The Russian fossil fuel industry is basically the money tap for his clique, so it is hitting the people responsible. By contrast, banning e.g. Russians from OnlyFans would disproportionally hurt sex workers who are not politically responsible for Putin. (I am sure some of the money from the porn industry is also funneled to the oligarchs, but I would be surprised if they managed as large a fraction of the surplus as with fossil fuels.)
I was with you for the first paragraph.
In your scorekeeping you’re leaving out the major point: Iran’s nuclear weapons program is being destroyed! This was a major explicit goal of US foreign policy for the last 50 years. The centerpiece of Iran’s foreign policy is gone.
Iran would have been willing to pinky swear not to pursue nuclear weapons if we pre-emptively offered them half a trillion dollars, lifted sanctions, and Hezbollah legitimacy in January, though.
This is not a “pinky swear”. We destroyed their nuclear facilities and now we are destroying their nuclear material.
Well, maybe we're destroying their nuclear material; depends on if a final agreement is reached and implemented, which I'd consider rather less likely than a coin flip. But they can rebuild centrifuges at any time. There's no way to permanently stop the Islamic Republic from getting nukes aside from permanently destroying the Islamic Republic. Diluting their nuclear material, destroying their centrifuges, and sending in pestiferous inspectors will delay them, but if they're dead-set on getting a nuke, more kinetic action will be required in the future to stop them.
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