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Notes -
The MOU Homesick Blues
Over the last two days, Donald Trump and JD Vance have been selling their embryonic Iran Deal to the American public and to the world. Trump has said, among other things:
Directly he states:
Along with this banger
JD has said:
Israeli ministers have been striking out against the deal
Now reports are coming in that Israel does not consider itself bound by the MOU, and intends to keep bombing Lebanon without reference to it.
The IRGC has stated today:
With the United States executive committed to the MOU, and Israel committed to the opposite policy, Yeshiva World News reports:
So, what now?
How does the USA navigate this problem with its erstwhile ally?
Part of me feels very strongly, the patriotic Toby Keith, regardless of your feelings about US policy or about this administration, that we can't have our president get cucked like that on the world stage. Trump has publicly signed, endorsed, justified, sold the MOU. He's stated clearly that it is necessary to the interests of the United States in maintaining the global economy. If Israel is our ally, our greatest ally, then they can't be allowed to do this to us. They can't insult and undermine the clear foreign policy of the POTUS and be allowed to do so. From the beginning I've said that Israeli forces, inasmuch as they are allied to the USA, should be under the command of an American general, Spartan style. They can't be allowed to go against us and continue to suck off the teat of the American taxpayer.
So plan trusters, antisemities, pro-Palestinians, shitlibs, anyone. Where do we go from here with Israel? What happens next? How can you, as the American President, allow your ally to undermine your own clearly stated foreign policy goals and, in your own opinion, wreck the world economy? At this point in the process what pressure can even be put on Iran?
This feels bad.
FWIW to me it kinda looks like to me that Trump is attempting to Venezuelize Iran (this seems extremely under-discussed in this thread, which I suppose is my fault for not chiming in sooner) and getting shall we say "varying degrees" of support from Iranian factions for this.
Obviously Trump pulling the same routine with Iran that he pulled with Venezuela (decapitation strike, pivoting immediately to "we're their new best friends" and economic partnership) would be a big coup for the Trump admin. I don't think it's "all gone according to plan" and I certainly think it's too soon to tell if this routine will work. But I think the "300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran" details tbd is the tell here.
And keep in mind the MOU provides explicitly that Hormuz will be governed according to international law (point 5) and (point 8) the downblending of Iran's enriched uranium. This doesn't seem like a big W for Iran to me, although it certainly might be a case where the US blustered and blundered its way to a salvageable situation.
Either way, I still think it's too soon to tell, there's still plenty of time for negotiations to break down.
It might be what he's up to, problem is that while the remaining Venezuelan dictators think that deal is fine, the Iranians don't. They seem to think that the deal is that the US hold Israel's arms while Hezbollah hits them, and when the US didn't do that, they called it off by announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since Trump is never going to do that, I don't see how a final deal can be reached that won't be scrapped within a week.
Yep, it seems quite plausible to me that exactly this occurs. Frankly I'm not sure that either the Iranian or the American governments are all on-the-same-page enough to commit to anything that will stick at the moment.
Iran will never agree to any treaty which explicitly guarantees Israel's right to peacefully exist. Most of the time the Iranians can't even bear to call Israel by its proper name; it's always "the Zionist entity".
I doubt this is necessarily true, but even if it is true, I don't think that such a treaty is necessary to end the
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The Iranian deal is also unlikely to cure cancer and pause AGI research. Better people than Trump have tried to solve the Israel-Palestine conflict.
The way I see it, the current incursion into Lebanon was likely a response to Hezbollah attacks which were a response on the US/Israeli bombing of Iran. If three years down the road, Hezbollah has recovered enough to decide to send rockets towards Israel, it is unlikely that Iran will close the Strait over Israel returning fire.
"Recognizing the right to exist" is overrated anyhow. Northern Cyprus is not recognized by anyone (except Turkey), yet they do not get invaded. Ukraine was recognized as a state by Russia, did not stop them from getting invaded. I am sure the PRC is reluctant to use the official name (Republic of China) of Taiwan (and they may or may not invade eventually, but how much they recognized them beforehand makes little difference.
If Iran could "drive all the Jews into the sea" at little cost to themselves, they would do so. Likewise, if Israel could turn Iran into a failed state a la Somalia at little costs to themselves, they would also do that in a heartbeat. Luckily, neither is in the position to do either.
As an aside, "Israel's right to peacefully exist" is very much moot because their current government is not trying to exist peacefully. They fully support settlers taking over the West Bank (where the Palestinians are ruled by less murderous organizations), and pretty much leveled Gaza to destroy Hamas. If Netanyahu and his even-further-right ministers had consistently destroyed illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank, you could argue that Israel is just trying to exist peacefully. But instead, their plan seems to be to create a Greater Israel consisting of whatever territory they can grab.
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