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A common argument in trans discourse is "who are you to say someone isn't the gender he says he is? No one would know better than the person himself."
I've spent years operating on the opposite assumption about myself, that I'm a bad judge of myself. Furthermore, everyone has dissatisfaction with themselves and the world. Personally, I flip-flop, get dissatisfied about my life and direction, but most people tell me "that's life, get over it". But if I had a trans-like belief that "I know what I am, but the world won't let me be it," with tons of people telling me over and over that I'm right and there are evil people out to get me, I think I'd have latched onto it hard. Not because it's necessarily true, though. It converts vague restlessness into a clear enemy and a fixed identity, and that provides false stability and obsession for a feeling of listlessness.
So I don't buy that conviction is evidence of accuracy. If anything, the more invested I am in a belief about my identity, the less I honestly should trust it. I think it's at least possible that having an outside view is more accurate than one's own personal beliefs.
Is having skin in the game a reason to trust your self-read more, or less?
If you flip flop from one thing to another, with every time it being something new, like a kid who doesn't know what he wants to be when he grows up then I don't think that's reliable.
But if you consistently think about something but then find a reason not do to do it, until it comes up again in the future, then I would say that counts. If you want to be a girl as a kid, a teen, a young adult, and an adult, and is a persistent nagging that you can never get rid of, only suppress temporarily then it can be something else.
But really the biggest factor is also simply doing something. Not just wishing to be a girl, but going about doing that. Actually learning makeup, how to dressing well, and voice training to speak more femininely.
Obviously there's persistent thoughts that should be suppressed for the social good, but in general, transitioning doesn't harm anyone else, so if it improves your quality of life, it's fine.
I mean, factually people are out to get you if you're trans. It is a choice that will lower your future life prospects in many ways. People will shit on online far more than if you're just a man. As a man you're invisible, as a transwoman you're a living example of the culture war.
If you don't pass, you will be judged for it, and will likely get less/worse jobs and worse dating prospects as a result. Some things like professional sports will essentially be cut off for the rest of your life.
In general, considering the cost of the act, if you feel bad enough that it outweighs all these risks, I see no reason why I would be against transitioning, and calling people by whatever pronouns they want.
The same is true if you cover yourself with tattoos, or get a billion piercings and blue half-shaved hair. The reason this happens isn't because you're trans, it's because you look ridiculous. It used to be trivially understood that, in polite society, you should put some effort into making yourself presentable. It's doing trans people a disservice to pretend that this norm shouldn't apply to them (when it always will - it's human nature).
Okay, I'll bite. Why are tattoos, numerous piercings, or a dyed undercut inherently ridiculous? Genuinely.
I think I sounded more judgmental than I needed to be. This is very culture-dependent, obviously, so there's nothing "inherently" ridiculous about tattoos or piercings. And maybe all of your milieu think it's perfectly normal. Hell, in rationalist/autistic subcultures, even acting like a woman with a masculine build and voice might not stand out overmuch (though it gives me the willies). But the post I was replying to was talking about getting jobs with normies, and they will absolutely think these things are ridiculous.
(Also, like @5434a said, if you and your friend group are doing it just to reject norms and stand out, well, having more trouble getting a job/partner is the entirely-predictable cost you pay for "rejecting norms" and "standing out".)
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If you deliberately make yourself look different it's unreasonable to expect that you will be treated the same. There are others but one of the common responses to people who look different is ridicule.
Signal = "unalike"
Response = "yes"
Ridicule is more likely when the signal appears unauthentic or incongruent.
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