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A common argument in trans discourse is "who are you to say someone isn't the gender he says he is? No one would know better than the person himself."
I've spent years operating on the opposite assumption about myself, that I'm a bad judge of myself. Furthermore, everyone has dissatisfaction with themselves and the world. Personally, I flip-flop, get dissatisfied about my life and direction, but most people tell me "that's life, get over it". But if I had a trans-like belief that "I know what I am, but the world won't let me be it," with tons of people telling me over and over that I'm right and there are evil people out to get me, I think I'd have latched onto it hard. Not because it's necessarily true, though. It converts vague restlessness into a clear enemy and a fixed identity, and that provides false stability and obsession for a feeling of listlessness.
So I don't buy that conviction is evidence of accuracy. If anything, the more invested I am in a belief about my identity, the less I honestly should trust it. I think it's at least possible that having an outside view is more accurate than one's own personal beliefs.
Is having skin in the game a reason to trust your self-read more, or less?
Let's talk about your penis. How do you feel about it on a scale from 1 to 10 where
1 is "An appendage I associate with great fun and joy especially when it's very hard and having an orgasm and ejaculating inside of a female"
and 10 is more like "A fleshy ugly cockroach-like thing sticking out of my body that I would cut off at the first opportunity if I could find and afford a doctor willing to do it"
Do you find yourself flip flopping much between those? Do you think you should trust your belief less if you are firmly at #1 rather than scoring your penis a more even and sober #5?
There are a lot of narcissistic tourists to trans stuff that cloudy the discourse considerably but there are honest to goodness people that are at #10 and have been for as long as they can remember.
But statistically, everyone has to deal with this. It's called "having excess adipose tissue". You feel your stomach bunch up around you when you're sitting down. It's not particularly comfortable. I'd slam a knife into it and remove the offending tissue myself if it wasn't going to kill me or leave an absurd scar.
Now yes, sensory considerations mean I'm reminded of this fact more than other people, and is probably why the autism-trans pipeline exists considering sensory body-can't-forget-itself issues and autism are comorbid. (Actually, I bet the same is true of eating disorders. If I felt that happen to my body, yes, I'd absolutely try to eat as little as possible and/or throw up.)
It's kind of like the "gayness is evil, but some are tempted more than others" question, complete with the modern response of "well, it's everyone else's problem if they don't like it, just do whatever you want all the time". You can't just decide to keep the productive parts for whatever reason.
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