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Eh, that's just the atheism-light view of religion; I don't know if it is still as popular as it was, but the way anti-Catholic polemic by Protestants seamlessly carried over into anti-Christianity polemic by atheists and freethinkers always amused me.
The short answer is priestcraft. The guys at the top, if they're smart, certainly can't believe in supernatural nonsense. So they know the truth, but they cynically power grab by manipulating the gullible masses in their ignorance. To get a top job in the hierarchy, you can't really believe the supernatural crap, so selection for smart cynics ensures the leadership is always majority, if not completely, 'we know it's bullshit but it enables us to rule over the dumb peasantry so we pretend, too'.
Insert favourite anecdote about Renaissance popes/the Borgias here to show how the leadership of the horrid Romanist church didn't believe a word of it all. Also applies to ancient pagan religions, e.g. the statue of Memnon that was alleged to speak at dawn - some ancient visitors/sceptics were not sure if the statue itself produced the sound or if it was produced by the priests or crowds gathered around it, or any organised religion you are currently throwing snowballs at.
To be fair, there are definitely senior churchmen with serious doubts about some load bearing pillar or Roman Catholicism or other- many of the Germans seem to have ideas about the sacramental priesthood/its centrality which would undermine their own position, for example.
Not that they do a very good job trying to hide it.
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Very cynical. This take has convinced me that this is at least plausible, so I guess Asimov's religion comes off better in this light.
I just want to say, from what I can tell, HereAndGone2's description:
is basically the standard model of how the typical atheist progressive liberal believes all major religions work. Hence the talk about US imperialism and oppression and such to explain the motive behind Islamic terrorism against various Western targets, always foregoing any sort of religious/faith-based explanation except for the useful idiots who are manipulated by their ostensibly-Muslim-but-actually-atheist leaders into actually blowing themselves up. This is also related to the common notion among them that "We've already had an atheist president, but we just don't know which one," or even the during-2008 "common knowledge" belief by Democrats that Barack Obama was a lying liar who lied about his opposition to gay marriage so that he could cynically manipulate the country into legalizing gay marriage once he gained power.
I would certainly be more inclined to believe that the leaders are actually religious if even one blew himself up.
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Yeah, I think Asimov's has a better chance because the people involved are "We know this is constructed, we know what the purpose is, and it's a noble lie for the greater good to spread this and get people to believe it, just make sure future leaders don't fall for any superstition themselves. All Hail Seldon! All Hail The Great Project!"
I'm slightly poking fun there because this whole edifice relies very heavily on sticking to the Seldon Plan, which does entail treating him as this infallible prophet over time.
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