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Notes -
Trumps proposing to pay families with SAHP $9,000.
Am I the only one who thinks the proposal is excellent, and that it is an inherent good to support families (even if its limited to more traditional ones)? Its probably better for us to support some families than not? The payment is certainly not ideal, perhaps an argument could be made for support working parents as well. But I think this is at least on the right track. We hear people complain about the cost of raising children all the time, (though I suspect this isnt a genuine complaint for most - many who are saying this probably wouldn't have children even if the cost were $0) but I think this may encourage the few who do actually think like this to go through and continue with more.
My only other complaint here is if Trump and JD Vance are primarily concerned with boosting the overall birth rate alongside helping working families, targeting male income and raising it should be paramount.
Mostly dumb.
I recently came upon this study looking at the effect of access to housing on fertility in Brazil. It uses a Brazilian housing-finance system where people contribute regularly to a common pool and access to housing credit is partly determined by lottery. This gave the researchers a way of comparing people who received access to housing earlier with otherwise similar people who did not.
The effects seem particularly large for younger people: among those aged 20–25, receiving housing increased the probability of having a child by around 32% and the number of children by around 33% relative to the comparison group. Which suggests that housing and credit constraints could have a fairly large effect on fertility, especially when they delay access to housing during the ages when people are most likely to start families.
Child credits, on the other hand, mostly support people once they are already in a position to have children, rather than helping create the conditions that make having children possible. Which of course this study isn't either, since it's essentially randomly picking winners in a zero-sum housing system.
Maybe this study isn't very representative, I don't know, but this sort of thing seems to be rarely tried or studied. Efforts are mostly targeted at people who already have children, and with first births now happening relatively late, that leaves us subsidizing a cohort with a fairly limited remaining fertility window.
Late birth cohort may have a small fertility window, but their voting window is probably just starting to ramp up.
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