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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   24155 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 7, 2026

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As usual, i find it difficult to follow all the details through the fog of war and propaganda from all sides. My main hunch is that the houthis will be quickly fought back- they just don't have the resources to actually hold territory. The market seems to agree, as the price of oil jumped yesterday but went back down today, suggesting an attitude of initial alarm and then calm.

The situation in Yemen is very interesting. Currently Houthis govern the population of around 28 million people out of 43 million total population of Yemen. and their standing army is around 350 000 people with around 30k of hardcore elite troops. Just as a comparison, at the time of US retreat the Taliban only had around 70,000 warriors with another 200,000 in various militias and reserve forces. However Houthis are much better equipped - they posses artillery, air defense, ballistic missiles as well as around 100 tanks as well as drones from quadcopters to Iranian Samad-3 despite decade long warfare against Saudis and USA.

Where are you getting the numbers for all these? I'm not saying you're wrong, just that it's kind of hard to get accurate numbers about paramilitary forces in an active conflict. They get their equipmenet from Iran, which is currently being destroyed.

The Houthis are stronger than they seem, they're not some flip-flops and AKs cohort like the name suggests. They are basically half the pre-war Yemeni military, battle-hardened, with all kinds of long-range missiles and drones. Their resource base is the bulk of Yemen's population, they're more of a real state than the internationally recognized government.

The Houthis can and have launched strikes on Israel, drones and missiles that pierced Israeli air defences. They also withstood the last US bombing campaign trying to reopen the Red Sea.

Taking parts of the Red Sea coast and some islands seems within their capabilities. And the ones they're fighting on the ground are Saudis and Emirati mercenaries, not known for military excellence.

One wonders if the Houthis are being "baited out." The sudden collapse of the Saudi offensive and very public alleged decline of US assistance read like the first step in a pretty clever plan.

However such clever plans have to be nigh-indistinguishable from something plausible, and the Saudis have a track record of meh performance.

The Saudis just don't have a very good military- they need to invest in scouting, artillery, regular ground pounder infantry that can go on patrol, etc. They were trying to defeat the Houthis by carpet bombing with F-16's, for crying out loud.

I suppose it's possible. But like you said, I just don't think the Saudi military is capable of that sort of thing. It's more likely this was genuine, and the Saudis got caught by surprise, but now they can counterattack easily.

I don't think it's very hard to evacuate your positions. But given the Saudis record I wouldn't be surprised if the retreat was real, either.

Time-wise, I would expect some Iranian (or proxy) action or attempted action to embarrass the US before the mid-term elections. I'd also expect the Americans to expect such a plan. "Baiting" like you suggest doesn't sound crazy.

Even if they are fought back quickly, unless they are defeated permanently, then the US is going to have to stay and down billions to keep the oil flowing. The current cost of crude is massively subsidized by the US tax payer. Think about how much additional money each barrel of oil costs right now from the US military having to escort it through. What’s the actual cost when you include interest in the debt?

Those sailor and pilots are going to get paid the same whether they're patrolling near iran or flying in circles for training in the middle of the ocean

The Iran War cost isn’t just their salaries. We’ve spent 37.5 billion so far according to Hegseth. Do you think all those advanced weapons they’ve used are free?

That's about 2 days of social welfare spending. Think of all the mobility scooters and dialysis we could have bought with that money!

Obviously wasting money is bad, but this war is being done on the cheap.

There's also the disruption in energy and pressure on inflation and interest rates, which is the bulk of the economic cost of the war.

Indeed. If you are like me and think inflation is essentially a tax, then this war directly increased the taxes on every American. Not to mention adding to the debt.

Core CPI is at 2.9 percent, lowest since 2021. Total CPI is at 3.4.

This is only high compared to the anomalously low inflation of the ZIRP period, driven by the replacement of western goods with cheaper Chinese ones.

We are also doing a trillion dollar data center buildout which is pressuring prices.

The main cause of “high” inflation is higher wages for working class Americans.

Going from very high inflation Going from very high inflation to 3% means the rate of price increases has slowed. It doesn’t reverse the cumulative price increases, and 3% is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Trump also got elected on decreasing prices and has made it worse through stupid decisions like tariffs and Iran. Also, saying lowest inflation since 2021 is the MAGA version of there’s more right wing terror attacks than Islamic ones since September 11th. Also completely ignores Trump’s disastrous Covid response to persistent inflation. Trump’s economic policy is not good. This doesn’t take into account his fiscal irresponsibility.

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Higher wages are a reflection of the higher inflation and an indicator of its stickiness, not the cause. This might not be the case if the higher wages were legislation-driven (eg minimum wage), but these increases are market driven.

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Also people sort of forget that all the money you spend on weapons is eventually fired off anyway - in this sense the cost is already sunk.

Now, particularly in this case, I do expect the cost to be more "real" in the sense that the munitions burn was so deep and prolonged that it will likely require fresh purchases to cover the balance.

Which, if it gets the US industrial base to finally start making the damn things again and scaling up their production lines, is an odd net win.

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