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Notes -
The WSJ has also reported some of the admin's top advisors fear the war will continue throughout the term https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trumps-top-advisers-confront-possibility-that-iran-war-lasts-through-end-of-term-5f4e23d7
Iranian leaders probably cannot help comparing Trump to Carter, and will likely try to hurt him politically in the same way as revenge. Unlike Carter, Trump's on his second term. Midterms are probably a tempting target so they can cripple Trump legislatively.
The recent news on the Iranian backed Houthis making waves in the Red Sea and destroying oil pipelines seem curiously timed to annoy midterm voters with high oil prices.
I would not be surprised to learn that the IRGC has sworn an oath to destroy Trump even if it meant relying on his political rivals to do the heavy lifting. Carter never killed an Iranian ayatollah and they hated him.
Obviously, yes. For Iran, the victory condition in this war is "establish that attacking Iran is a presidency-ending mistake".
This was clear from the beginning, and is sound strategy on their part. The Trump administration is the main obstacle to a peace favorable to Iran. Trump started the war, so any concession to Iran will look like a defeat, so he needs to keep bombing them and hope that they will change their mind, and conduct an expensive escort operation to stabilize the oil price.
Any future administration will have the excuse "the Iran war was a stupid blunder". Unlike the occupation of Afghanistan, this is not something which the US will want to keep up for a few decades, even AIPAC will not be able to make them shrug off the high oil prices.
I think it is reasonable to presume that Biden knew that he was effectively signing over Afghanistan to the Taliban when he had the coalition troops leave, but was doing it anyway because he believed it was the right thing to do (which I concur on).
I am sure that a future president will find a similar fig leaf as Biden handing control to the new Afghan government. "Under this peace treaty, the US will leave the Strait of Hormuz and Iran will guarantee the freedom of navigation, and hand over some of their enriched uranium. Oh, now they are demanding tolls all of a sudden. Who would have thought! We will have to write a sternly worded letter to the UN complaining about that."
At the end of the day, if Iran manages to charge as much as $1.5 per barrel, that is a rounding error for gas station customers. And Iran would have some incentive to not take 10x as much because then it would risk getting bombed again (or annoying China, for that matter).
So Iran lost? Attacking Iran was not a presidency-ending mistake.
Well, now that the predictions that Trump would cede the Straits to Iran have not played out, I guess it’s only natural to push the timetables back. America hasn’t surrendered yet, but will definitely surrender. Someday, a few years from now. Eventually.
We don’t have the answer to this question yet. The war is still ongoing. If Iran’s regime is still in power and attacking shipping after the midterms and the Democrats take the Senate and House will you update or will you still claim that it was an obvious victory for Trump?
“Still attacking shipping”? Iran is barely attacking shipping now. America has oil moving through the straits and Iran has not sunk anything. This is hardly “presidency-ending”. If nothing else has changed a year from now then yes America has obviously won.
Is it possible for Trump to lose to you? I'm dead serious, what is a Trump loss to you in the Iran war. You will never make a prediction that you can be held down on. You just declare anything a victory and you can never lose! You do realize you actually have to win a war to win it right? The war isn't over yet, so nobody has won yet. It's tautological. Define an explicit loss scenario for Trump on the Iran War, please. I suspect you won't respond to this with one. You will just say Trump won.
Yes, Trump did already win. We destroyed Iran’s MIC and displayed the capacity to do it again at will. They do not even control the Straits of Hormuz, which is what everybody said they would do before the war broke out. America has secured oil through the Straits while blockading Iran. Iran can’t sink American ships. Iran can’t destroy American capabilities. We did this easily and cheaply, against basically all pre-war prognostications and expectations. This is all basically what Trump has said about the war all along.
I have made the same predictions over and over and over again. Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons. Iran will not toll the Straits of Hormuz. Iran will alienate the rest of the Middle East against it. Iran’s proxies in the Middle East will be destroyed. Iran will not sink American ships or kill America’s leaders or otherwise be capable of forcing America to change course.
I can go back and time and dig up a dozen different comments where I have made these predictions over and over and over.
Please admit you were wrong as I am sure you didn’t mean to lie. Thanks!
They aren't destroyed though? How is this a win?
President Trump (March 2): “Our objectives are clear. First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities… and their capacity to produce brand new ones — pretty good ones they make. Second, we’re annihilating their navy… Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon… And finally, we’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”
Trump's own words. Only one of these is done. The rest is TBD, so by his own definition the war isn't over. The US hasn't won yet.
Please admit you were wrong as I am sure you didn’t mean to lie.
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