A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.
Ground Rules
*Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
- Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
- Be kind. Remember that everyone here comes from different circumstances. We all have different resources available and different risk tolerances.
- Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Better is better. Celebrate people when they take a step up and work to move their finances in the right direction. Don't flame out because they haven't followed what you consider the optimal path. Everybody has to start somewhere.
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Notes -
Ones I recently bought with small allocations:
$CRON – Canadian weed stock. Sector is bombed out. They are profitable. Most of the market cap is in cash. Growing.
$KSPI – Kazakhstani super app
$STNE / $PAGS – South American payment rails. Super cheap.
My top holding:
$SBLK – Bulk shipping. There is likely to be a shortage of bulk shippers over next 5-10 years because there are no ships on the order book and older ships will have to be scrapped. Will make probably earn $5/share per year over next several years. Stock price is $31. Pays out almost all profits as dividends. New iron ore mine in Guinea will be a tailwind as ships have to sail longer from Guinea-to China then Australia to China.
Risky/speculative:
$CHTR. Leveraged play in cable. Bombed out beyond all belief. Trades at a PE of 3.5 but has a ton of debt so EV/EBIDTA closer to 5. Debt is like 4 times market cap so could be in trouble in a couple years if earnings fall and interest rates are higher than now. Cash flow projected to increase by a lot as they pay back debt and have lower capex needs. If so, stock could triple. Risk of bankruptcy is non-zero.
An X user I respect recommends $SNAP with the thesis that all you need for a 5 bagger is them to stop having absolute dogshit management.
Weed firms I am getting vibes are cheap. That never felt like a good business to me with little moat and not much branding. But vibes I’m getting is it’s cheaper to buy say a weed farm in public markets today than it would be to build my own equivalent weed farm. So they probably work. I never got the bubble in weed stocks because I always thought it a no moat type business.
Also like snap. Not sure if I can see 5x as I think the research reports saying that assume monetization at closer to meta levels but most users are teenagers with less disposable income than metas adult users. Actually surprised that company still exists because I know no one that uses it but the revenue is real and cheapish especially if the ran it to maximize profits instead of growth.
Exited Snap a while above 6. I don’t have conviction on anything right now. But have been buying Snap 5.2-5.5 and selling 5.6-5.8 because it does have decent vol. somehow I messed up an order and got short 2k shares at 5.75 which scares me a little and thought about just taking a small loss on it.
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Interesting. Picked up a small position to track how it does. That's exactly what I'm looking for, some actual diversification I can feel good about having as a long term hold.
Not sure how I feel about the weed sector. Think the opportunity may have passed there, the numbers just would need to be really good with how limited I feel the overall industry's growth potential is. Will probably still do some more research.
Make sure with $SBLK you are holding in a tax free account because you are going to get over $4/share in dividends next 4 quarters.
$CRON is kind of a special situation and it's definitely not a buy and hold. Market cap is $1.2 billion. They have $800 million in cash. Their last quarter was the first time that they made a real profit. I'd want to see continued revenue and earnings growth. If so it could inflect. Potential rescheduling of cannabis in US would probably cause the stock to jump. I too am not a fan of the sector and have never invested until recently.
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